Thursday 29 November 2012

A (late) look back on the pre-season predictions

Well, a quick look back at that post from March provides a few chuckles and shakes of the head. They certainly were bold predictions, and for that reason a lot of them now seem laughable. Without further ado, let's look back...

1. Yovani Gallardo wins the Cy Young

Hmm. Not my best call. Gallardo got off to a terrible start, struggling through April with a 6.08 ERA. He began to turn this around after that, and only in September did his ERA rise above 4 again. However, final counting stats of 204 IP, a 3.66 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, a 16-9 record and 204 strikeouts are (whilst good) not Cy-calibre figures. His strikeout rate is still excellent, but he needs to work on consistency. Time is on his side, but for me to ever make a prediction involving him and Cy Young again, he is going to need to put together a full season of brilliance.

2. The Red Sox don't make the play-offs (again)

An excellent call on my part! Not only did the Red Sox fail to make the play-offs, they also contrived to finish bottom of the AL East with a pitiful 69-93 record. Bobby Valentine suffered immensely at the helm, and the early trade of Youkilis was only the start of a number of high-profile exits, as a blockbuster trade with the Dodgers saw Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett leave the club. Things can't get much worse for them in 2013, although they currently have a skeleton of a roster and will need to make big roster moves if they want to have a sniff at post-season baseball.

3. Giancarlo Stanton will win the home run crown

Almost a fantastic call. Sure, Stanton wasn't a nobody entering 2012, but his stock has risen immeasurably over the last 8 months as he put together a superb season for Miami. His final season total of 37 homers was not enough to challenge Miguel Cabrera's 44, but Stanton played just 123 games. Stanton may well have fulfilled this prediction but for an injury that sidelined him for the best part of a month and may have hampered him when he did take to the field. He is a physical freak, and despite playing in a massive stadium at the heart of a weak order he was one of the most punishing players in baseball. If he plays 160 games next season, he will smash this prediction - no way this seems all that bold now.

4. Lucas Duda becomes an elite outfielder

Hear that? It's embarrassment. Duda was horrible in 2012, failing to capitalize on what could possibly have been a full season at the heart of the Mets line-up. He started the season so poorly he was dropped to AAA in May, and failed to put it together whilst in the minors as evidenced by his weak final counting stats of .239 average with 15 homers and 57 RBI. The power has never been a problem, but Duda struck out far too much to hit for anything like a good average, and he will have to perform out of his skin in Spring Training if he wants to find himself on the Mets line-up card come opening day. Elite is a word bandied around far too much in my opinion, but in no realms of possibility could Duda be considered just that.

5. The Nationals go to the NLCS

From a terrible call to an excellent call. In the end, I fell just short in this prediction as the Nationals lost the 5-game NLDS and ultimately ended a superb year on a sour note. However, they finished the regular season with the best record in baseball, falling just shy of 100 wins. The pitching was the lynchpin of the side, and timely hitting from Zimmerman, Harper, Morse, LaRoche and Desmond among others made this team the best in the Majors, and they'll be bitterly disappointed they couldn't turn that into post-season success. However, they have a young side and should be a sure bet for another good year in 2013, it'll certainly be no bold prediction to see them play October baseball once more.


So there you have it. 3 excellent predictions and 2 extremely forgettable predictions. I had a lot of fun following these during the season, and will of course do the same thing in a few months time for 2013.

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