Although for players, fans and coaches the season has just ended, 2013 is now starting for the GMs of every Major League team. The building of a World Series champion starts now, and whilst some teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers) are perennial big spenders, it is often the shrewdest of moves that prove the most important.
Unlike last year, the number of 'big name' free agents is thin, with Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke heading the respective hitting and pitching classes. Other big names include David Ortiz, Mike Napoli, Kyle Lohse, B.J. Upton, Michael Bourn, Delmon Young, Ichiro, Nick Swisher, Ryan Dempster, Adam LaRoche and Anibal Sanchez. As always there will be a number of trade rumours swirling too, not least around Arizona's young outfielder Justin Upton.
In terms of teams with money to spend, the Boston Red Sox have a huge amount of payroll free and several spots in a line-up to fill, so they may be active this winter. The Yankees are always looking to upgrade their roster, the Phillies will be active and you can expect both LA teams to try and build upon a high-spending 2012.
Josh Hamilton is perhaps the most intriguing free agent on the market. Aged 31, he's likely on the downward slope of his career, but as he proved in 2012 he still has plenty of pop in his bat. Off the field issues will always plague him, with his career almost over before it began due to alcohol and drug problems (see my blog post from a couple of years ago). Injuries are almost a guarantee with Hamilton too, and with his twilight years approaching, teams will be anxious that he spends more time on the field than off it. He'll likely command the highest price of all free agents too, but with good reason: in terms of raw upside there are few in baseball who can match him. His incredible power is simply unmatched, and in any ball-park he should be a lock for 30+ home runs as long as he garners 500 plate appearances. His fielding is much improved too, and he offers a good glove at any OF position, although at this stage in his career LF seems the most likely destination. I think any team would be foolish to offer him more than 3 or 4 years considering all of the question marks, but it wouldn't surprise me to see someone like the Yankees make a big money move.
Zack Greinke is another interesting name to watch during free agency. After a trade from the Brewers at the deadline this year, he was superb for the Angels in the second half and secured himself a lot of interest in the off-season. Off all the pitchers in free agency, Greinke is really the only 'ace' available, as he offers the possibility of 15-20 wins and 200 strike-outs for the next 5 seasons. Considering his fantastic half-season with them, I expect the Angels to do as much as they can to secure his services for another 3 or 4 years, but among others the Boston Red Sox are likely to be interested in him.
David Ortiz is an intriguing free agent should he hit the market. It was expected that the Red Sox would offer him another contract after two 1-year stints, but with nothing concrete yet, Ortiz may test the waters. Unlike most free agents, Ortiz is really restricted to the American League, as his services are really only useful from the Designated Hitter position. The Red Sox appear to be the best fit for Ortiz, although it wouldn't be surprising to see teams like the Angels or Blue Jays show interest. He's certainly a powerful bat that improves any line-up, and though his age is a minor concern, speed and defense have never been factors of his game, so he is about as oblivious to the effects as any player.
Two quality, young center-fielders are also likely to be popular names on the tongues of fans, as the speedy Michael Bourn and toolsy B.J. Upton will both be seeking new contracts and likely new homes this winter. Bourn enjoyed a spectacular season with the Braves, filling a big void as their lead-off hitter, and it is likely they will be keen to hold on to him for a few more years. B.J. Upton's time in Tampa Bay appears to finally have ended, and as far as upside goes, Upton could be an intriguing option, as his combination of speed, power and excellent defense make him a very attractive option for the top of a line-up card. I expect the Phillies to be interested in both players, with their center-field now vacant after the departure of Victorino.
On the mound, the pitching gets thin after Zack Greinke with the exception of Kyle Lohse. The 33 year old right-hander enjoyed the best year of his career in 2012 with the Cardinals, leading the NL in ERA for much of the season and ending up as one of the front-runners for the Cy Young award. His command has been impeccable, and for the team that ends up acquiring him, there should be a good few years of ace-quality pitching from Lohse. If Zack Greinke signs early, expect the price of Lohse to increase significantly as he becomes the best available free-agent arm, although at the moment teams may be looking for a bargain as the big-spenders hold out in the hope of getting Greinke.
My free-agent predictions
Josh Hamilton - Rangers (although if they don't resign him then Yankees)
Zack Greinke - Angels
David Ortiz - Red Sox
Mike Napoli - Marlins (although the Nationals would make sense in my opinion)
Kyle Lohse - Blue Jays
BJ Upton - Phillies
Michael Bourn - Braves
Delmon Young - Twins
Ichiro - Yankees
Nick Swisher - Pirates
Ryan Dempster - Orioles
Adam LaRoche - Nationals
Anibal Sanchez - Tigers
Don't feel confident about any of them though...
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