To put this into context I'll use an example. Say you drafted both Miguel Cabrera and Chase Headley. Miguel Cabrera hit .330 with 44 homers, 139 RBI and was ranked in the top 3 of any player rater, regardless of scoring system. Chase Headley hit .286 with 31 homers and 115 RBI on his way to 14th on the ESPN player rater. Cabrera is clearly the better player. However, Cabrera was drafted in the first round of every single fantasy league. Headley would have been lucky to make a roster as his average draft position clocked in at 232.9. Cabrera is the better player, but Headley is the better value.
So who is this years Chase Headley?
Catcher - Salvador Perez
This is not the first and likely won't be the last time I mentioned this young man's name. Salvador Perez is the 22 year old catcher for the Kansas City Royals. Perez was on the periphery of the fantasy radar last season, but an injury meant he missed the start of the season and was often overlooked in drafts. Those managers canny enough to draft him or pick him up off the free agents profited. Perez hit .301 with a .328 OBP and provided a bit of pop with 11 home runs. Those stats were compiled over the course of 76 games, meaning over the course of a season Perez could have 20 home run power. Warning signs flash when you see that Perez draws few walks (just 12 last season), but his high average is fuelled by an astonishing strikeout rate. His 10.2% rate in the Majors is no fluke - it is right in line with his minor-league rate - and his 24.2% line-drive rate shows that he hits the ball often and hits the ball hard. He is listed at 6"3 and 240 pounds, so power is just starting to mature. If Perez can stay healthy, he will make an absolute mockery of his ranking as the 203rd overall player according to ESPN.
First baseman - Paul Konerko
Unlike Perez, Konerko's name is unlikely to be a trendy one on draft day. The slugger from Chicago is now 36 years old, and is surely on the back-end of his career. However, Konerko's skill set has never been one likely to regress with age. Ultimately, Konerko is unlikely to have a high ceiling, the seasons of 40 homers are probably in the rear-view mirror now but he is still an extremely reliable fantasy provider. He has hit greater than .298 and more than 26 homers each of the past 3 seasons, and he also draws a lot of walks meaning he is even more valuable in leagues that count OBP. Konerko will likely split time between first base and DH meaning injury risks should be reasonably limited. He's proved durable throughout his career, playing less than 142 games on just 2 occasions over the past 14 seasons. If he plays 150 games, he could well hit .300 with 30 home runs and 70 walks, which would be outstanding value from someone ranked 139th overall by ESPN, particular considering first base is shallower than usual this season.
Second baseman - Danny Espinosa
Traditionally, second base has been a weak fantasy position, and this year is no exception. The only complete player is Robinson Cano and he won't last past the first round. Kinsler is a bounceback candidate, but unlikely to provide value higher than the 3rd round. Guys like Zobrist or Phillips can provide reasonable all-round stats, but after that the going gets really tough. Danny Espinosa is someone I like as a late flyer, provided you have studs in other areas. Espinosa's average is a real eyesore (career average of .239), and whilst the walks are increasing there are no signs that the average is going to turn around any time soon. If you can get other high-average guys though, Espinosa can still provide real value in the counting categories. He hit 21 homers in 2011 and 17 last year, to go with 17 steals in 2011 and 20 steals in 2012. 20/20 ability is not easy to find nowadays, and playing in the vaunted Nationals line-up will help his counting stats. If you can handle an average around the .240 to .250 mark, and some deeply frustrating cold streaks, Espinosa could provide great value from his 135th overall rank on ESPN.
Third baseman - Aramis Ramirez
The 34 year old slugger is unlikely to elicit any attention on draft day, but might be a key cog in a championship-winning team. The move to Miller Park had little impact on his production, although hitting behind Ryan Braun brings obvious benefits. Power has never been hard to come by for Ramirez, but despite a down year in 2010 when he hit .241, he's kept his average above .289 in 8 of the previous 9 seasons. A .290 average and 25 home runs - where is the drawback? Well Ramirez doesn't steal many bases or draw many walks but his strikeout rate is manageable and if a few of the 50 doubles he hit last season fly over the fence (see Billy Butler 2011 and then Billy Butler 2012) then he could truly be an elite option at 3B.
Shortstop - Ian Desmond
2 for 2 for the Nationals infield. Desmond broke out in a big way last season, hitting .292 with 25 homers and 21 steals. This was despite missing 20 games that could possibly have made him one of the top options last season at SS. The average came as a bit of a surprise, but there is no reason not to think he can sustain an average around .270 or .280 with the possibility of repeating. Nationals Park is hitter friendly, so Desmond could hit 30 homers in that Nationals line-up, and the speed continues to be a surprising benefit for fantasy owners. I see a .270 average with 20 homers and 20 steals as the floor for Desmond, and you'll likely not get that kind of production from Hanley Ramirez. He's ranked 65th overall on ESPN but could easily provide value way above that ranking, especially considering the position scarcity.
Outfield - Matt Holliday, Melky Cabrera, Ichiro
Three outfielders, and hopefully a few that are spaced out in draft rankings. Matt Holliday makes the list for one simple reason: consistency. Matt Holliday has never had a batting average lower than .290. Over the last 9 years, he has never had an OBP lower than .379. He is a lock for 25-30 homers if he plays the full season, and batting third in a potent line-up should provide him with ample opportunity for RBI and runs. The only part of the scorecard Holliday won't fill up is the stolen bases department, but he is exactly the kind of player who will guide your team to a championship - let him make a mockery of his 47th overall ranking on ESPN.
Melky Cabrera certainly isn't the most popular name in the Major Leagues at the moment, when his MVP calibre season came to an abrupt halt in 2012 after he tested positive for PEDs. He served his suspension and has now signed with the potent Toronto Blue Jays. Regardless of his cheating ways, Melky was setting a hot pace in 2012, hitting .346 with 11 homers and 13 steals until his season was cut short. Whilst that inflated average will likely be unsustainable, Melky could be a good bet to hit around .300, and in the stacked Jays line-up, he could stack up some runs and steals. The 99th ranking on ESPN seems to be a little affected by the PED suspension - don't let that faze you.
Finally we finish with another veteran of the game in Ichiro Suzuki. Ichiro was having a poor season with the Mariners until he was traded to the Yankees, but after that he looked like his old self, hitting .322 with 14 steals and 5 homers in 67 games. It's unlikely he'll hit well over .322 as his speed has faded with age, but Ichiro continues to have enough skills to be fantasy relevant. The main reason he could provide value is the stadium he plays in - the short porch in right field could turn hits that would be doubles at Safeco into home runs, so don't be surprised if he's able to hit 15 home runs. Don't expect MVP calibre stats from Ichiro, but at 193rd in the ESPN rankings, he can certainly provide value.
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