Nope, it's not just a typical game of 'name a random baseball player', but rather how your first six picks in a 2012 fantasy draft could have looked if you'd gotten it all wrong. It's human nature to forgot our mistakes ("A-Gon was a first round pick?!" "No-one took Pence that high did they?!") but using simple logic you can work out that for every player that performs above his expectations, there will be another player performing below expectations. These are the guys you want to avoid on draft day, the dreaded 'busts'. Sometimes it can be down to injury, other times horrible performance drop-offs. Who are the guys to stay away from this year?
Catcher - Victor Martinez
This prediction has a pretty good chance of backfiring, considering the fact that Martinez will be batting 5th in the Tigers line-up, behind perennial all-stars Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. I just think Martinez is too high up on draft boards considering he hasn't swung a bat since 2011. Before his injury, he was an absolute lock for a .300 average, 10-20 homers and in this Tigers line-up he could well cruise to 100 RBI. Whilst the injury shouldn't impact his contact ability, and it appears he will be spending all his time in the DH role, I think there is considerable risk both for re-injury and for regression. He is, by all means, a viable fantasy starter, but his current ranking in the top five catchers by many people seems too high.
First base - Albert Pujols
Well if you're going to go out on a limb, you may as well make it a big limb. Pujols is considered by many if not all to be the number one first baseman available, and that is what I have an issue with. Pujols had a disastrous April last season, but turned it around and ended up logging his typical stat-lines - 30 homers, 100 RBI and a .285 average. However, he was forced to make adjustments. Pujols bat speed has decreased, and as a consequence he is being forced to start his swing earlier. He's a good enough hitter that bad pitches will still be punished, but his traditionally elite eye at the plate (92 walks was his lowest mark between '05 and '10) will start to suffer and he'll strikeout a fair bit more. This of course, will lead to a drop off in average; I think somewhere between .280 and .290 can be expected. He'll probably hit 30 home runs, but again the days of pushing 40 are in the rear-view mirror. He's a fine fantasy option, but I'm leaving him alone in the first round and drafting someone with more upside and reliability.
Second base - Jason Kipnis
Kipnis got off to an absolute flyer in 2012, stealing 20 bases from his first 21 attempts. In the second half of the season, however, he began to slow down, both at the plate and on the bases. He's a category filler, as he has 20-homer potential with the bat, and 30-steal potential with his legs, and those are the kind of stats that are hard to find at second base. If you're league counts walks or OBP then he becomes a good performer there too, as his 10% walk rate attests to. However, his .257 average ended as a bit of an eyesore, and his second half performance comes as a concern. If he falls down draft boards then he is well worth a flyer, but at his current ranking I think you'd be better off with Zobrist or Brandon Phillips.
Third base - Hanley Ramirez
Hanley is eligible at both third base and shortstop this season, and whilst he'll likely provide more value at shortstop I'm listing him as my 'bust' at third base. With Ramirez you're simply drafting for something we haven't seen since 2010. After posting excellent stats in the average category during his first few seasons in the Majors, his ability to get the ball in play has collapsed since then, with a .243 and .257 average in the pst two seasons respectively. Ramirez's speed has also become less of a factor, with his 50 steal seasons in '06 and '07 now firmly in the past. His power is unlikely to play up at Dodger Stadium, and whilst he did play better there than at Marlins Stadium I think his likely slash-line will be something like .260/.320/.430 with 20 homer and 20 steal ability. He's still a fine option either at third or short, but don't kid yourself that he'll provide value anywhere near the third round where he's being drafted this year.
Shortstop - Starlin Castro
Some appear ready to suggest Castro is primed for a jump into the top tier of shortstops and maybe even become number one. Having played in the Majors for three years now, it's easy to forget that Castro is just 22 years of age, and likely only starting to scratch his power potential. Whilst I think Castro is improving, and that he is destined to be the number one shortstop in fantasy in the coming seasons, I don't think that season is now. After posting an average above .300 and an OBP above .340 in both of his first two season, Castro actually took a step back last season with an average at .283 and OBP at .323. He continued to show improvements in power, with 14 home runs, and I think he could 20 home runs at his peak. The speed continues to be a big part of his game, with 25 steals last season, although being thrown out 13 times is not impressive, and he came under stick from his own manager at times for bone-headed play on the bases or in the field, suggesting he may not get the green light as frequently. He should hit for .280 with the possibility for .300 or .310, but his plate discipline suggests a run at the batting title is unlikely to be imminent. And whilst 15 homer and 25 steals are fine production at the position, I think you can find that kind of value several rounds later in the form of Ian Desmond. Certainly he does not deserve to go at the same time as Jose Reyes, so I'd suggest avoiding him and allowing someone else to take on the hype.
Outfield - Josh Hamilton, Curtis Granderson and Desmond Jennings
Josh Hamilton was one of the nicest surprises in fantasy land last season, as he lived up to his billing as a devastating power hitter, slugging 43 homers and managing to stay healthy for (almost) the whole season. The move to Anaheim has boosted his stock in some ways (hitting behind Trout and Pujols never hurt anyone) but reduced it in others (Angel Stadium is a hitters park, compared to the sluggers paradise in Arlington). But what concerns me the most is the way Hamilton finished in Texas. He hit just 16 homers after the all-star break, compared to 27 before it and saw a worrying fall in his walk rate coincide with an increase in strikeout rate. After putting together three consecutive seasons with strikeouts below 100, Hamilton struck out an eye-opening 162 times in 2012. He was able to hit for a .285 average, and with more walks then ever before but there are so many concerns. I think the average will plummet to somewhere around .260-.270, and whilst there's no holding back that power, injury issues remain a concern for Hamilton. He could repeat 2012 and make me look silly, but I'm avoiding him in the first few rounds if I can.
I have never been a big Curtis Granderson fan, which may explain partly why I'll be staying well away from him in drafts this season, but the stats are there to back me up. Granderson's value is no secret. He uses the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium to his advantage more than anyone else in the league, and subsequently is an annual threat for 40 homers. He has also proved remarkably durable in centre-field throughout his career, despite putting significant demands on his body. The reason I'm so low on Granderson is the batting average and the strikeouts. Granderson has never been a contact guy, but he took that to the extreme last season, hitting for a pitiful .232. Whilst this was somewhat salvaged by his 75 walks, there is no denying that his ability to get the ball in play has severely diminished. It's possible that he bounces back a bit, but he'll have to prove he can hit breaking balls. He hit .296 off fastballs in 2012 but a laughable .175 off breaking pitches. His 195 strikeouts also challenged for the league lead. Not only that, but his speed has faded slowly but surely from his game as he stole just 10 bases last season. You're paying only for power, and for that reason I think you can do much better when he's ranked around the 40 overall mark (Matt Holliday for example).
Desmond Jennings seems to be ranked among the top 25 outfielders because of the general belief that this will surely be the year he breaks out. At least that's the only explanation I can think of, as his career high in average is .246, in home runs is 13 and in strikeouts is 120. Admittedly, Jennings does have great speed, swiping 31 bags in 33 attempts last season, but other than that he has few tools to speak of. He entered the league with 5 tool potential and it appears unlikely he'll ever be able to live up to that potential. Until he's able to hit for a .300 average with 20 home-run power and 30 steal potential I'll be leaving him well alone when he's ranked around other outfielders like Choo, Prado and Austin Jackson.
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