Starting Pitchers - Jered Weaver, Gio Gonzalez, Chris Sale, Doug Fister and Matt Harvey
Jered Weaver is an ace; there is no denying that. The only reason he places in my list is the rank he is given. He is being taken around 7th or 8th for starting pitchers, sometimes higher, and I don't think he gives good value from that position. The main reason for that is his strikeout trend. Weaver struck out 142 hitters last year, which, whilst impressive, does not come close to matching those of the other aces. When Weaver is being taken before 200-strikeout guys like Hamels, Greinke and Lee I think he is being overrated. One reason he is ranked so highly is because you are paying for wins which, as we know, is impossible to guarantee. Sure he won 20 games last year and 18 the year before, but a regression towards 15 or even 12 is always possible, even with a line-up as potent as the Angels' behind him. He's a fly-ball pitcher which works in his favour at a large ballpark in Anaheim and with arguably the finest defensive outfield in baseball backing him up (Trout, Bourjos, Hamilton) so I don't think he'll struggle to get outs. I just think strikeouts are important when drafting your ace.
Gio Gonzalez took a huge step forward in 2012, improving his strikeout rate but more importantly reducing his walk rate. The former can be attributed to the move to the NL, whilst the latter is the main reason he was so successful. His walk rate of 9.3% is not superb, and is the main reason why I still have doubts, but the 207 strikeouts in 199 innings are legitimate. The other reason Gio looks set for regression is his home run to fly ball rate which was lower than should be expected in 2012, particularly given Nationals Park is not a pitchers haven. Gio will give you 200 K's and likely greater than 15 wins considering his team, but I expect a regression in his ERA and WHIP and so would warn you to stay away when pitchers like Bumgarner and Darvish are still available.
My concerns regarding Chris Sale almost entirely surround his health. He has a pitching motion that Keith Law described as 'the worst arm action on any big-league starter right now' and I'm concerned that he could break down at any moment. He was almost forced to move back to the bullpen early in 2012, and he was forced to miss a start with elbow soreness last year too. I think these kind of issues will plague Sale's entire career, and the possibility at DL time is stronger for him than any other starter. If you're willing to put up with that kind of risk then he's a good bet for strikeouts, decent WHIP and a strong ERA. I'm just too concerned that injuries are going to plague him.
Doug Fister is actually an underrated pitcher in my opinion, but talent on the mound does not equal talent in the fantasy world. Fister exhibits superb control, which means he has a sterling 1.79 walks per nine rate in his career. However, his stuff relies on sink, and as such he is not a big strikeout pitcher (somewhere around 150 K's would seem to be a good projection). His extreme ground-ball rate means that he should avoid giving up homers and keep his ERA in check but Detroit's woeful infield defense means his ERA and WHIP won't be as great as they should be. He might be more reliable over the course of the season than battery-mate Scherzer, but it's obvious which of the two has greater upside.
There's no doubt in my mind that Matt Harvey is set for a long and profitable major league career, but don't buy too much into his superb start with the Mets last season (including an electrifying debut). There is no doubt that he has fantastic stuff (just check out this fastball) but regression is sure to be in order. He has some control issues that need to be ironed out, and his 3.68 ERA and 1.31 WHIP from AAA last season show a stat line he is likely to normalise towards. He took Major League hitters by surprise with his devastating fastball/slider combination last season, but they will adapt quickly, so for every 6 inning, 1 run, 10 strikeout start he provides, there'll be a 4 inning, 6 run outing to go with it. If you're in a dynasty league, he's worth the hype, but I think he's being overrated in re-draft leagues.
Relief pitchers - Rafael Soriano, Joel Hanrahan and Ryan Madson
There's no doubt about it, Rafael Soriano is a highly talented relief pitcher who deserves a shot at the closer role for a contender having played second fiddle to Mariano Rivera for several seasons. However, you'd be foolish to think that Soriano is an elite closer. His K rate is actually worse than most major 9th inning men, although at around one strikeout per inning it is not woeful. His command in general is also far from elite, and I don't expect him to keep his ERA way below 3, so considering he's one of the first relievers off the board I'm leaving him alone.
Joel Hanrahan was traded to the Red Sox during the off-season, which in typical east-coast bias fashion meant he suddenly became more fantasy relevant. Hanrahan has been a closer for a couple of years now, but after a superb 2011 season, he regressed slightly last year although 36/40 for save chances is still elite. He'll strikeout hitters at a rate around 1 per inning, but last season control issues reared their head as he walked hitters at a rate worse than 4.5 per 9 innings. Moving to Fenway may give him a few more chances (but this is debatable) but the ballpark is definitely not going to help his WHIP or ERA and with a healthy Andrew Bailey breathing down his neck, Hanrahan may not have a long leash at all.
Finally, Ryan Madson will be the closer for the Angels this season after spending 2012 off the mound recovering from Tommy John Surgery. He was effective with the Phillies in 2011, but again his K rate is around 1 per inning which is fine, but not elite. His control is his greatest asset, but I have concerns about whether he'll miss enough bats to be effective for the Angels. With Ernesto Frieri so effective for large parts of last season, and Madson possibly missing the first couple of weeks of the season he may find himself consigned to a role that doesn't involve the 9th inning. He's high risk, and I'm not sure the reward would justify it.
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