But of course, that won't stop me from picking guys I think provide you with value!
Starting pitchers - Stephen Strasburg, Roy Halladay, Matt Moore, Lance Lynn, Josh Beckett
What?! Stephen Strasburg?! How can he possibly be a sleeper candidate? Yes, it's true he's ranked in the top 5 of pretty much anyone's starting pitcher ranks, and it's highly likely he's off the board within the first 2 or 3 rounds. But I still think he can provide tremendous value. Last years numbers (with an innings cap) were Cy Young quality, as he won 15 games with an ERA of 3.16 and WHIP of 1.15. His 197 strikeouts came at an 11.13 K/9 rate which is the best among starters. He gave up just 136 hits but hurt himself a bit with walks. This year, the shackles are off, and if he can reduce the walks he has an excellent chance at finishing the year as the number one fantasy pitcher. Whilst it's impossible to predict wins, it's hard to imagine him struggling when he's playing for the Washington Nationals. Strasburg is rated 24th on ESPN, but I think he could return top 15 value.
Prior to 2012, Halladay was automatic. Four straight seasons of more than 17 wins, an ERA under 2.79 and WHIP under 1.15. He'd struck out more than 200 in each season, and had compiled a mind-boggling 29.3 WAR in that time. 2012 provided a bump in the road however, as injuries cost him time and he was far from dominant when on the mound. His velocity has fallen in recent years, and there are good reasons to believe his days of Cy Young calibre performance are over. However, that's not to say that Halladay has fallen from fantasy relevance. He can still be a dominant pitcher on his day, and to ignore years of outstanding production because of one injury-plagued season would be foolish. He seems to have recovered during the off-season, and if he can come anywhere close to his 2011 performance then the 76th placed ranking on ESPN will be an absolute bargain.
After an enticing couple of late-season starts for the Rays in 2011, Matt Moore was a popular name on draft day in 2012. Ultimately, his rookie season was disappointing, as his 1.35 WHIP and 3.81 ERA were underwhelming. Control issues were his downfall, as 81 free passes were issued and he pitches just one game with zero walks. However, there are plenty of reasons for optimism. His fastball velocity was just fine, and this was part of the reason he was able to strike out 175 batters in 177 innings. He was also closely monitored by the Rays, who seemingly wanted to prevent him from taking on a huge workload. This season, he may have more innings to work with, and if he can control the walks, could strike out a batter-per-inning with an ERA in the low 3's. The upside alone is reason to take him before the 87th ranking he is given by ESPN.
Lance Lynn was a pleasant surprise for fantasy players last season, especially in the first half. His 18 wins were a bolt from the blue, and he was able to strike out more than a batter per inning. Late season issues with stamina and control saw him demoted to the bullpen, but a rotation spot is his for the taking this year, especially after Chris Carpenter's setback. There are some concerns that 2012 was a fluke, particularly in the wins department (it is extremely unlikely he repeats that total), but there are plenty of causes for optimism. Lynn has turned up for Spring Training 20 pounds lighter, which should allow him to carry a heavier workload and pitch deeper into games. The K's are certainly no fluke, and whilst the ERA and WHIP levels won't be elite, he looks like he is in fantastic shape and could prove a key cog both for the Cardinals and fantasy teams. He'll be drafted around the same time as Anibal Sanchez, Jonathan Niese and Jon Lester - make sure you snap him up.
Finally we have the much maligned Josh Beckett. Beckett is believed to have been a big part of the spectacular failure of the Red Sox last year with his clubhouse antics, and his pitching struggled after a bounceback 2011. However, it is important to note that Beckett pitched a lot better when he was traded to the Dodgers. He owned a 2.93 ERA with them, and the strikeout rate was much improved. Whilst he is unlikely to repeat his 2011 success, pitching in Dodger Stadium will be a lot easier than Fenway, and the strong run support should be there. If he can continue doing what he did late in 2012, he could have real value from his ranking of 236 overall on ESPN.
Relief pitchers - Sergio Romo, Huston Street and David Hernandez
Having spent the best part of three seasons refining his craft as the best set-up man in baseball, Sergio Romo finally made the jump to closer at the end of the 2012 season and quickly established himself as one of the premier 9th inning men in the league. The Giants rolled with a 'closer-by-committee' set-up for the majority of the season, as Romo, Santiago Casilla and Javier Lopez picked up saves amongst others. In September and the post-season, Bochy began to lean towards the enigmatic Romo, and his faith was repaid as Romo was lights-out. With the departure of Brian Wilson, Romo appears to be the closer going forward, and armed with a devastating slider and immaculate control, he should be as good a bet as any to nail down any chances he is given. He'd rank easily as one of my top five closer options for this season; draft him at will.
Having spent three seasons closing out games at hitter-friendly Coors, Street made perhaps the biggest ballpark jump possible when he moved to the expansive confines of Petco Park. Street missed a month at the start of the season, and then missed six weeks in August and September. Staying healthy has been an issue for Street his entire career, but there is no doubting his stuff. He didn't blow a save all season in 2012 until the final game of the year. He had a miniscule ERA and WHIP and struck out guys at rate better than a K per inning. If Street can stay on the field he could provide top five value, so take advantage of his 17th placed rank among relief pitchers on ESPN.
Finally we come to a deep sleeper in David Hernandez. Hernandez has shown the kind of improvement that managers dream about over the past four seasons. In 2009 he had a 5.42 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, this improved to a 4.31 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 2010, then a 3.38 ERA and 1.14 WHIP as part of an impressive 2011 campaign before becoming one of the finest set-up men in baseball in 2012 as he pulled a 2.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on his way to 25 holds. He struck out an impressive 98 hitters in 68 innings thanks largely to his devastating slider: in 112 appearances ending in the slider in 2012, batters hit just .088 with 71 strikeouts. If you're in a league that counts holds he could be a key performer, and even if you're not then shaky early season outings from J.J. Putz could mean Hernandez is breathing down his neck for the closer job before long. Ranked 42nd among relief pitchers by ESPN, he is definitely worth a flyer at the end of drafts.
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