2012 Season
The Arizona Diamondbacks ultimately endured a frustrating 2012 season, finishing with an 81-81 record, 13 games out in the NL West race. Aaron Hill and Paul Goldschmidt both had breakout seasons, with the former collecting two 'cycles' as part of a memorable season. Justin Upton struggled a little, mostly due to a wrist injury, whilst the D-Backs got terrible production from the 3rd base spot. The pitching was good-but-not-great, with Wade Miley the stand-out performer in his rookie season as he finished second in NL Rookie-of-the-Year voting.
Off-Season Moves
IN: Cody Ross, Martin Prado, Cliff Pennington, Brandon McCarthy, Heath Bell, Didi Gregorius
OUT: Justin Upton, Chris Young, Chris Johnson, Trevor Bauer
Overview: Overall, I think this has been a disappointing off-season for D-Backs fans. The acquisition of Brandon McCarthy was shrewd, and Cliff Pennington fills an immediate need in the short-stop role. However, Justin Upton ended a long period of trade speculation as he left for Atlanta, with the Braves potentially only getting 75 cents for the dollar, although Martin Prado fills a clear need at third base. Trevor Bauer had a public spat with Miguel Montero, and the exit was inevitable as the D-Backs got hold of their short-stop of the future in the form of Didi Gregorius. A lot of noise from the D-Backs management, but ultimately I'm not convinced this team got any stronger. Overall grade: 4/10.
| Expected Opening Day Line-up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | Player | Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR) |
| CF | Adam Eaton | .358/.418/3.8 |
| 2B | Aaron Hill | .327/.444/3.6 |
| C | Miguel Montero | .357/.435/3.9 |
| LF | Jason Kubel | .333/.465/2.1 |
| 3B | Martin Prado | .347/.425/3.8 |
| 1B | Paul Goldschmidt | .375/.501/2.5 |
| RF | Cody Ross | .321/.444/1.9 |
| SS | Cliff Pennington | .315/.246/2.3 |
| Expected Rotation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Player | Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR) |
| 1 | Ian Kennedy | 214/3.49/3.2 |
| 2 | Trevor Cahill | 202/3.79/2.8 |
| 3 | Brandon McCarthy | 182/3.46/2.2 |
| 4 | Wade Miley | 199/3.57/3.1 |
| 5 | Tyler Skaggs | 142/4.76/1.0 |
Position Players
I think the exit of Justin Upton leaves them lacking in star-power, a view that is confirmed by the ZiPS WAR projections, who don't see them having a single player above 4 WAR. My initial view is that these projections, particularly regarding WAR are a little harsh on young first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who has lost value due to supposedly below-par defense. I think he could be poised to break out at the heart of the Diamondbacks line-up.
Adam Eaton is an intriguing option atop the line-up. He hit .381 in AAA last season on his way to a batting title, and his 42 steals suggest he can do damage once he is on base. He could be one to watch in the Rookie of the Year stakes. I expect regression from Aaron Hill this season, although he could still easily hit .280 with plenty of power. A full season from Miguel Montero will be crucial if they are going to fill the void left behind by Upton, and clever use of platoon splits in the outfield might be key (Cody Ross crushes left-handers, but should be benched in favour of Gerardo Parra when a right-hander takes to the mound). Overall grade: 6/10
Pitching
I like the look of the D-Backs rotation. Ian Kennedy struggled a little last season with an ERA above 4.00, although the .306 BABIP suggests he suffered from a bit of bad luck. Trevor Cahill showed good progress, with more improvement in the K/9 rate and his third consecutive season with more than 196 IP suggesting he is becoming a bit of a workhorse. Wade Miley may regress towards the mean, but Tyler Skaggs is an enticing option as a 5th starter with plenty of upside.
In the bullpen, the acquisition of Heath Bell may yet prove a shrewd one. If he can rediscover his Padres form then he'll be a useful arm late on in games. J.J. Putz kept his ERA under 3.00 for the third consecutive season and is becoming a reliable 9th inning man. Perhaps the most underrated pitcher in the pen is set-up man David Hernandez, whose 2.50 ERA and 12.91 K/9 were both career bests. His improvement has largely been down to a silent but deadly slider. In 112 plate appearances ending with a slider in 2012, batters were able to hit just .088 with 71(!) strikeouts. The rotation has good strength in depth and the bullpen should improve on an excellent 2012 campaign. Overall grade: 8/10
Prospects
The top Arizona prospect at the moment is Tyler Skaggs, who clocked in at 12 on Keith Law's top 100 prospects list, the highest of any left-handed pitching prospect. Matt Davidson is an intriguing third base prospect, although his path to the Majors is clearly now blocked by Prado. Andrew Chafin and Anthony Meo may be ready to contribute in the bullpen this season. Overall grade: 6/10
Overview
This is a team that has the starting pitching to be competitive in every game, but without a 20-win ace, I think they'll miss the MVP-calibre production of Justin Upton. They may stay competitive in the West for a while, but ultimately I don't see them improving on last season.
Prediction: 82-80.
Gif to Watch
Take a look at that Trevor Cahill sinker and you may start to understand why Arizona were happy to pay a steep price for him...
No comments:
Post a Comment