2012 Season
The best way to sum up the 2012 season for the Chicago Cubs is poor, but not disappointing. The Cubs won just 61 games as they secured themselves the second overall pick in this years draft, but little more was expected of a team that is most definitely in the 'rebuild' phase. There were highlights, with Starlin Castro continuing to impress at shortstop, playing 162 games in the process, and first baseman Anthony Rizzo excelled in his short time in the Major Leagues, suggesting he can be an all-star calibre player for years to come. The Cubs also sent away any remaining veterans mid way through the season, with Ryan Dempster, Geovany Soto and Paul Maholm all shipped off to contending teams.
Off-Season Moves
IN: Edwin Jackson, Scott Baker, Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva, Kyuji Fujikawa, Scott Hairston, Nate Schierholtz, Brian Bogusevic
OUT: Bryan LaHair, Chris Volstad, Joe Mather
Overview: The Cubs potentially have the payroll to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox, but GM Theo Epstein is aware that this a team built with 2015 in mind and so there were no major splashes this off-season. I do love what moves they have made though. They paid Edwin Jackson $52 million dollars for a four-year contract, which may seem excessive given his career 4.40 ERA. He's a strikeout pitcher however, and at age 29 you'd like to think he can give them four years of solid and consistent production, without the insane cost. I love the signings of Feldman and Baker, both on one-year contracts. If they produce, fantastic, and if they don't, no harm done for the Cubs. Fujikawa appears to be the closer-in-waiting assuming he can make the switch to the Major Leagues, and Hairston, Schierholtz and Bogusevic will provide useful bats at little cost. The Cubs made clever signings, refusing to spend too much, and I think these moves allow them to field a serviceable team in 2013 without damaging their chances further down the line. Overall grade: 7/10
| Expected Opening Day Line-up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | Player | Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR) |
| CF | David DeJesus | .345/.389/1.4 |
| SS | Starlin Castro | .346/.448/3.9 |
| 1B | Anthony Rizzo | .346/.517/4.0 |
| LF | Alfonso Soriano | .304/.462/1.9 |
| RF | Nate Schierholtz | .321/.425/0.7 |
| 3B | Ian Stewart | .327/.427/0.3 |
| C | Welington Castillo | .316/.423/1.7 |
| 2B | Darwin Barney | .311/.357/2.3 |
| Expected rotation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Player | Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR) |
| 1 | Jeff Samardzija | 193/3.78/3.3 |
| 2 | Edwin Jackson | 199/3.98/3.3 |
| 3 | Matt Garza | 198/3.68/2.6 |
| 4 | Scott Feldman | 101/4.19/1.3 |
| 5 | Travis Wood | 196/3.90/1.5 |
Position Players
The two key players in this line-up are shortstop Starlin Castro and first baseman Anthony Rizzo. Castro's average dipped a little last season after two years around .300 to .280, and the rising number of strikeouts will be a concern for a player that has little power. However, he has good speed, swiping 25 bags last season (and getting thrown out 13 times) and has shown signs that he can grow into power after his 14 bombs last year. Anthony Rizzo struggled mightily in his small stint with San Diego, but excelled last year in his 87 games, hitting .285 with 15 homers and drawing some walks. He looks set to be the cornerstone of this franchise for years to come.
Alfonso Soriano hit an impressive 31 homers last season, but doesn't have on-base skills or speed to be much more than a power threat as the Cubs try to offload his massive contract. Schierholtz and DeJesus are useful, but unlikely to be the long term solution at either position. Darwin Barney is generally considered one of the best fielding second basemen in the Majors, but his bat is yet to really come round. If he can get on base in one-third of at-bats then the Cubs will be more than happy. Welington Castillo and Dioner Navarro will split time behind the plate and Ian Stewart will be a stop-gap option at third base as they wait for Josh Vitters to take on the full-time role. This is a team with promise, but little in the way of firepower. Anthony Rizzo could be ready for a breakout season, but he can't do it all by himself. Overall grade: 3/10
Pitching
The rotation has actually turned from an area of weakness to an area of potential strength after the wise off-season dealings. Samardzija was extremely impressive at times last season, and will look to build off of those outings and become the staff's ace. Matt Garza was blighted by injuries and may miss the beginning of this season, but on his day he can lead a rotation. Edwin Jackson has never really found the consistency he needed to make his stuff play up at the Major League level, but the Cubs will be hoping he is finally able to find a groove. Feldman and Wood won't set anyone alight, but can be solid innings-eaters at Wrigley which is all the Cubs need at this stage. Carlos Villanueva and Scott Baker will look for rotation spots with strong Springs or injuries, so the Cubs will be hoping they can get quality innings from this group of 2-3 win players.
The bullpen has long been an area of weakness for the Cubs, a weakness exemplified by the occasionally sublime but consistently wild Carlos Marmol. Marmol walked 45 hitters in 55 innings on his way to a 1.54 WHIP last season, but was still able to strike out 72 and save 20 games. A trade may well be imminent for Marmol, and the heir apparent will be 32 year old Japanese import Kyuji Fujikawa. Fujikawa was a shutdown closer in Japan for the past 5 or 6 seasons with 220 saves, and will look to take his explosive stuff to Chicago. Shawn Camp was a workhorse out of the bullpen for the Cubs last season as he led the NL in appearances, and left-hander James Russell has quietly become one of the best lefty-specialists in the game. The man to watch in Spring Training is likely to be former top prospect Michael Bowden, who had a 1.33 ERA in the second half of last season and will be looking for a bullpen job this year. Overall, this is a team that has good depth, but no ace. They will keep the team competitive, but probably won't win any games on their own, and whilst the bullpen is improving, a 9th inning with Carlos Marmol at the helm won't fill any Cubs fans with confidence. Overall grade: 5/10
Prospects
Javier Baez is the most exciting player in the Cubs farm system, with incredible bat speed and fantastic raw power. He has patience issues, and is yet to play any higher than A-ball, so it will be a few seasons before he is playing at Wrigley Field, but he may give Cubs management a nice shortstop problem to deal with. Arodys Vizcaino, who arrived in the Paul Maholm trade, will be looking to bounce-back from surgery that made him miss the entire 2012 season and may earn a September call-up. Josh Vitters had a small taste of Major League baseball last season, and will likely earn reps in place of Ian Stewart at some point this season. All other top prospects are still a few seasons away, so their 2013 impact will be limited at best. Overall grade: 4/10
Overview
The Cubs are headed in a clear direction, and whilst that looks like it could work in the long term, the 2013 product is not a competitive one. With no Houston Astros to beat up on in the division, the Cubs may be set for another year trying to avoid losing 100 games, although the off-season acquisitions make me optimistic that they can compete in most games. I like the core of their team, but there are clear deficiencies in the players that surround them, so another year dwelling at the bottom of the NL Central appears likely.
Prediction: 67-95
Gif to Watch
One of the defensive highlights of the season for the Chicago Cubs will have been Starlin Castro's quick thinking bare handed catch on an outfield pop-up. He'll be looking to flash the leather once again in 2013.
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