2012 Season
Expectations were so low heading into 2012 that it would have been tough to fail to live up to them, although with a 55-107 record (the worst in Astros history), it's hard to see many positives to take away from the year. The team was particularly dire in the summer months, compiling a laughable 8-46 record in July and August. The Astros' most experienced starter and the sole remnant from the 2005 World Series visit, Wandy Rodriguez, was traded to the Pirates in July as part of an entire dismantling of the Major League roster. The main bright point was young second baseman Jose Altuve who put up a .290/.340/.399 triple-slash with 33 steals. The Astros have rebuilt their franchise, with a move to the AL and new uniforms, but the 2012 season was a year to forget.
Off-Season Moves
IN: Philip Humber, Alex White, Carlos Pena, Erik Bedard, Chris Carter
OUT: Wilton Lopez, Jed Lowrie, Jordan Schafer
Overview: Astros' management made it clear that the team wouldn't be making major moves in free agency, and they stuck to their word, bringing in a couple of veteran arms to complete the rotation but making no major dabbles in the market. Chris Carter and Carlos Pena are sluggers who can hit the ball a long way, whilst the trade for Alex White was a good move to bring a nice young arm on to the roster. There are few reasons in this moves to suspect the team will take a huge jump forward this season, but a quiet off-season is no less than I expected. Overall grade: 4/10.
| Projected Opening Day Line-up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | Player | Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR) |
| SS | Tyler Greene | .314/.413/0.9 |
| 2B | Jose Altuve | .347/.417/2.4 |
| 1B | Carlos Pena | .340/.408/1.6 |
| DH | Chris Carter | .333/.471/1.6 |
| CF | Justin Maxwell | .331/.465/1.4 |
| C | Jason Castro | .339/.382/1.3 |
| LF | J.D. Martinez | .336/.423/0.3 |
| RF | Fernando Martinez | .318/.406/0.9 |
| 3B | Matt Dominguez | .293/.385/1.8 |
| Projected rotation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Player | Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR) |
| 1 | Bud Norris | 173/4.27/2.0 |
| 2 | Lucas Harrell | 196/4.18/1.5 |
| 3 | Jordan Lyles | 163/4.64/1.6 |
| 4 | Philip Humber | 116/4.66/0.3 |
| 5 | Erik Bedard | 95/3.79/0.7 |
Position Players
This group sorely lacks star quality, with just one player anticipated to break the 2 WAR mark. The on-base predictions make for ugly reading too, with the bulk of the offense perhaps resting on the shoulders of Jose Altuve. The diminutive second baseman weighs in at just 5 foot, 5 inches, but emerged as a good top of the order option for the Astros last season, hitting for a high average and swiping a lot of bases. Hitting in the 3 and 4 holes will be Carlos Pena and Chris Carter, both sluggers who have home run potential but a propensity for strikeouts. The former hit 19 home runs in Tampa Bay last season, but had an ugly .197 average. He draws a lot of walks (his OBP was .330) but with 182 strikeouts he probably doesn't have the power potential to make up for the frustrating lack of contact. Chris Carter is similar in that the average won't ever be high (he hit .239 last season) but he draws enough walks and hits enough home runs to be productive.
The outfielders can almost challenge the Mets for the worst in baseball, as all three have extremely limited skillsets with little upside. Jason Castro actually had a pretty good year for the Astros last season, with a .257/.334/.401 triple-slash as part of a 1.3 win season. He'll get a full time shot at the catcher position, and may establish himself as one of the better hitters in this weak line-up. Matt Dominguez hit well in limited time with the Astros last season, and he plays excellent defense at third, but the once top prospect is likely nothing more than a fill-in player during the rebuilding process. Overall, this is a unit with little upside, and there may be more days with double digit strikeouts, not double digit runs. Overall grade: 1/10.
Pitching
Lucas Harrell was the best starter in the rotation for the Astros last season, with a 3.76 ERA in 193 innings, and the Astros will be hoping he can continue to be a workhorse whilst cutting down the walk rate. Bud Norris has thrown 150+ innings for the Astros for three straight seasons, and enters the year as one of the team veterans. His consistency will be important, as whilst he strikes out a lot of hitters, he gives up a lot of home runs, which may become a bigger problem in the AL West. Humber and Bedard are two veterans who have bounced around in recent years. Humber threw a perfect game last year, but was awful for the rest of the season and will try to get a fresh start in Houston. Bedard has invariably pitched well in his career when fit, but has struggled through injuries, although last season he struggled even when healthy.
In the bullpen, Jose Veras will be thrown straight into the closer's role despite a disappointing season in Milwaukee (1.51 WHIP). He has bags of experience and a decent strikeout rate, but may have Wesley Wright breathing down his neck. Wright impressed last season, with a 3.27 ERA and 1.18 WHIP and could possibly be considered a veteran of the team at this point. Also in the 'pen will be Josh Fields, Rhiner Cruz and Xavier Cedeno to complete a bullpen with little experience but some potential. Overall, this group of pitchers lacks an ace, and may even end up lacking depth with no-one waiting in the wings, whilst the bullpen will largely rely on a group of unproven youngsters. It could pay off, but for now this could be a long season on the mound for the Astros. Overall grade: 2/10.
Prospects
The sole benefit to clearing out the entire Major League roster is that it has allowed the Astros to restock a depleted farm system. The biggest prospect is probably 2012's first overall pick Carlos Correa who impressed in his first taste of rookie ball and may become the shortstop of the future in a few years time. For 2012, the biggest impact player will likely be first baseman Jonathan Singleton, who may have started the year on the big league team were it not for a 50 game suspension for marijuana use. He has an impact bat that may be up by late summer, whilst Jarred Cosart may become a dominant full time reliever if he continues to struggle with location as a starter. Other than that, the big prospects in this system are a couple of seasons away, but it will be a relief for Astros fans that the future is a lot brighter than the present. Overall grade: 7/10.
Overview
This team lost 107 games last season, and scarily doesn't appear to have improved over the off-season. The rotation has some innings eaters, but not a lot of quality and the line-up contains far too many strikeouts to win games by itself. It looks set to be another long season for the Astros, and the move to the AL will not do them any favours.
Prediction: 52-110
Gif to Watch
If ever a GIF epitomised a team's season, this would be it.
I particularly like the effort of the third baseman, who runs 40 feet to pull off a perfect superman impression.
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