Tuesday 12 March 2013

30 in 30: Miami Marlins

Having visited the Atlanta Braves in the first of the NL East previews yesterday, we head to the coast in Miami to take a look at the revamped Marlins.

2012 Season

Having made a splash in the 2011 off-season, the Marlins entered 2012 with new players, new management, new kit, a new stadium and even a new name. They got off to a poor start in April, but a 21-8 May took the teams record to 29-22. From there it was all downhill as the team failed to put together a winning month for the rest of the season and finished 69-93, good for last in the division. On the way there, they traded Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers with Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante going to the Tigers. There were a few bright spots, with Josh Johnson returning well from injury, and Giancarlo Stanton proving he's one of the best sluggers in the Majors as he crushed 37 homers in just 123 games. With crowds diminishing, players leaving and the record disappointing, this was a terrible season in Miami.

Off-season

IN: Yordy Cabrera, Henderson Alvarez, Adeiny Hecheverria, Placido Polanco, Juan Pierre
OUT: Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Emilio Bonifacio, John Buck, Heath Bell

Overview: And just as Marlins fans thought the disappointment was over, Jeffrey Loria ripped the gut out of  the team. Reyes, Johnson, Buehrle, Bonifacio and Buck were all shipped to Toronto in a huge trade that saw a few fringy prospects go back in return. Ultimately it was a salary dump that completely took the Marlins out of contention in 2012, and rendered the big 2011 off-season useless. The only premier hitter left on the team is stud right fielder Stanton, and he has confirmed he wants to be traded himself. Loria has an obligation to field a competitive team, but right now this roster is the laughing stock of the Majors. Overall grade: 0/10.



Expected Opening Day Line-up
PositionPlayerProjected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR)
LFJuan Pierre.336/.333/0.7
SSAdeiny Hecheverria.299/.359/1.3
1BLogan Morrison.347/.460/1.5
RFGiancarlo Stanton.365/.605/6.4
3BPlacido Polanco.331/.368/1.0
CFJustin Ruggiano.339/.456/2.3
CRob Brantly.333/.413/2.1
2BDonovan Solano.294/.332/0.9



Expected rotation
StarterPlayerProjected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR)
1Ricky Nolasco194/3.94/2.7
2Jacob Turner152/3.79/0.7
3Henderson Alvarez186/4.40/1.3
4Nate Eovaldi176/3.63/0.9
5Wade LeBlanc84/3.75/1.5

Position Players

The only star in this group of players is stud right-fielder Giancarlo Stanton, although in his defense he'd be a star in any line-up in the world. He put up some fine stats in limited time last season, with insane power despite the size of Marlins Stadium. How long he'll remain on this team is a real question however, with a trade possibly inevitable at this rate. Atop the line-up is 35 year old Juan Pierre, who was a hero with Miami 10 years ago, but now has limited on-base skills and declining speed, although his 37 steals last season suggest there's still gas in the tank. Adeiny Hecheverria has a decent glove at shortstop, but his bat is nigh-on non-existent, so he'll be nothing more than a stop-gap.

Logan Morrison is probably the second-best hitter in this line-up, although he struggled with injuries and was poor whilst on the field in 2012. Placido Polanco is the journeyman of the team, and whilst his defense may still be solid at third base, his bat skills have depreciated and he will no longer be a source of consistent .300 averages. Ruggiano actually had a superb season in 2012, putting together a .313/.374/.535 triple-slash, although whether he can maintain those numbers is debatable. Brantly is a youngster with some potential, and Solano will get a chance to prove himself as an everyday player, although neither are likely to set the league alight. This is a pretty awful group of position players with the exception of Giancarlo Stanton, but his presence in the line-up makes them worth waiting for on the highlights show. Overall grade: 2/10.

Pitching

The rotation is led by Ricky Nolasco, who has been a consistent innings-eater over the past few seasons, but is certainly not ace material. The strikeout rates have taken a worrying dip, but he'll be heading up this inexperienced rotation. Jacob Turner made the move over from Detroit in the Anibal Sanchez trade and he impressed in his seven starts in Miami. At the tender age of 21, he has room to grow, and will be hoping to carry on where he left off last season. Henderson Alvarez promised much as a young prospect, but has been unable to strikeout as many hitters as he should with his stuff. He may benefit from the move to a bigger park, and still has a chance to turn into a top starter, but he'll need to show improvements this season. Wade LeBlanc was solid in his first season in Miami and will look to fully transition to the rotation whilst Nate Eovaldi arrived from the Dodgers in the Hanley Ramirez trade and will try to establish himself in the rotation after an underwhelming rookie season.

The bullpen is led by the 26 year old Steve Cishek, who's side-arm action has proven effective out of the bullpen so far, and he saved 14 of 15 games after the all-star break. Jon Rauch made the move from the Mets and may be the main set-up man. He kept his WHIP below 1 but actually had an ERA of 3.59 so he may benefit from the spacious confines in Miami due to his extreme fly-ball tendencies. Mike Dunn will be the main lefty specialist but he was poor in 2012 and will need to turn the 4.91 ERA around. Ryan Webb, Dan Jennings and Chris Hatcher make up the rest of an underwhelming bullpen. Overall this is a pitching staff with little experience that will rely on big jumps in quality from the young players. The large park may help slightly with the stat-lines, but I don't see these pitchers winning games on their own. Overall grade: 3/10.

Prospects

The Marlins have actually traded and invested poorly in its farm system over the past few years, but the departure of nearly the entire big league depth chart has given it some top level talent. Outfielder Christian Yelich is the top prospect, with good contact ability and a growing amount of power. He projects to join the big league club at some point later this season and become the center fielder of the future. Jose Fernandez is a big, hard-throwing righty who could project as a number 1 starter if he can develop a third pitch. He's still some way from the Majors though, and it appears it will just be Hechevarria, Yelich and third base prospect Derek Dietrich who contribute this year. Overall grade: 5/10.

Overview

This is a team that was bottom of the NL East last season, and has made itself considerably worse this season. At the moment the team is only worth watching for the fireworks show of Giancarlo Stanton, and if he leaves the Marlins will become a real joke team for 2013. There are young pitchers who can improve, but this team lacks an ace, and has little experience beyond Ricky Nolasco. The production will have to come from somewhere, but I can't envisage a scenario in which this team is not bottom of the NL East.

Prediction: 59-103

Gif to Watch

Giancarlo Stanton provided most of the highlights last season for Miami, and this grand slam off a man twice his age broke the scoreboard in left field and brought a rare capacity crowd to its feet.


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