2012 Season
The Mariners can in some ways consider themselves unlucky in 2012. Playing in the smallest division in baseball, the third-placed Angels racked up 89 wins and so the 75-87 record was only good enough for last. Their were some positives to take from the season, with 'The King' Felix Hernandez continuing to perform as one of the best pitchers in the American League, throwing the first perfect game in Mariners history on his way. John Jaso put together a fine .276/.394/.456 triple-slash but the Mariners lacked consistency with the bat and the pitching was too reliant on Hernandez.
Off-Season Moves
IN: Robert Andino, Raul Ibanez, Kendrys Morales, Michael Morse, Jason Bay, Kameron Loe
OUT: Munenori Kawasaki, Trayvon Robinson, Chone Figgins, Miguel Olivo, Jason Vargas, John Jaso
Overview: I didn't love this off-season for the Mariners. The DH spot was already pencilled in to belong to Jesus Montero is a poor defensive catcher, but the M's went out and acquired three other DH specialists during the off-season. Raul Ibanez has little value on defense, and should be a bench or platoon bat at best for the Mariners. Kendrys Morales offers nothing on defense, and whilst his power bat is what's needed in Seattle, he will be vying with Michael Morse for playing time at first base. The exit of Jaso means that Montero will be handling catcher for most of the year, whilst Vargas leaves a large innings hole in the rotation. The team has tried to fill holes with older, simple solutions, and whilst this may pay off at times, they may find themselves in the same position next season.
| Projected Opening Day Line-up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | Player | Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR) |
| 2B | Dustin Ackley | .328/.370/2.8 |
| CF | Franklin Gutierrez | .308/.374/1.3 |
| 3B | Kyle Seager | .337/.443/2.2 |
| LF | Michael Morse | .342/.501/1.8 |
| DH | Kendrys Morales | .332/.489/0.7 |
| C | Jesus Montero | .337/.446/1.9 |
| 1B | Justin Smoak | .324/.395/0.4 |
| RF | Michael Saunders | .309/.403/1.0 |
| SS | Brendan Ryan | .296/.305/1.5 |
| Projected rotation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Player | Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR) |
| 1 | Felix Hernandez | 232/3.18/6.1 |
| 2 | Joe Saunders | 189/4.10/1.3 |
| 3 | Hisashi Iwakuma | 128.3/3.86/1.4 |
| 4 | Erasmo Ramirez | 149/3.81/1.6 |
| 5 | Blake Beavan | 180/4.10/1.3 |
Position Players
The Mariners have long been searching for the big bat to lead their line-up, with trade links to both Justin Upton and Giancarlo Stanton. Ultimately, they still have a variety of hitters, but with Dustin Ackley's 2.8 WAR expected to lead the team, there is a clear lack of star quality. Jesus Montero has a good bat, but he'll need to draw more walks and hit for a better average before he enters the top echelon of catchers. Kyle Seager was quietly superb in 2012, as the .259 average was backed up by 20 homers and 13 steals although to ask him to hit in the three hole this season may be a bit too much. Michael Morse had another injury-reduced season in 2012, but for a hitter who has poor plate discipline and can only hit fastballs, his .291/.321/.460 triple-slash was superb. He has a good deal of raw power, and his righty/lefty splits are actually pretty even, so he may provide an impact bat if he can stay healthy.
Kendrys Morales returned from injury in 2012 and got back on track quickly. His average is good considering he has no speed down the line, and the 22 homers are a reminder he still has the pop to drive the ball out of the park. With no position, he will mostly be limited to the DH role, and may be forced to share time there. Once uber-prospect Justin Smoak has been unable to live up to expectations so far in his three-year major league career, and if he is unable to get going early this season he may find himself confined to a bench spot or even AAA. His .998 OPS in September provided hope he can turn it around, but he is on a very short leash. Brendan Ryan will finish off the line-up, and his career .633 OPS is testament to the fact he is terrible with the bat. However, with the glove he is one of the best defensive shortstops in the Majors, with a 14.7 fielding runs above average in 2012. On the whole, this is a line-up with power, that will benefit from the fences being brought in. However, there are still questions marks over the ability of this team to get on base, and unless the likes of Montero or Smoak has a breakout year they may struggle on offense. Overall grade: 4/10.
Pitching
Felix Hernandez is the clear star in this rotation, and he put in another Cy Young calibre performance in 2012, with a 3.06 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 232 innings with 223 strikeouts. He is never going to get a lot of help in the wins category, but after signing a long extension in the off-season it appears he will be leading this rotation for years to come. Hisashi Iwakuma had an excellent season in 2012, working from both the rotation and the bullpen. If he can translate his 3.16 ERA and 1.28 WHIP across 30 starts he'll be a valuable starter for Seattle. Erasmo Ramirez is another potential breakout candidate, with his 3.36 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in limited action suggesting he has the stuff to be a good starter. Both Blake Beavan and Joe Saunders do not have electric stuff, but should be key innings-eaters in this rotation.
The bullpen has actually become an area of strength, despite last season's departure of Brandon League. Tom Wilhelmsen filled the closer role admirably, saving 29 games with a 2.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Charlie Furbush and Lucas Luetge also excelled as the primary left-handers, sporting a 2.72 ERA and 3.98 ERA respectively. The hard throwing Carter Capps is likely to be the team's future closer, and his triple-digit heater may be called upon in pressure situations to get the strikeout. Overall, this is a rotation that has an ace, and some reasonable upside further down, whilst the bullpen has a good mix of youth, experience, power and finesse. The pitching should be a strength for the M's this year. Overall grade: 7/10.
Prospects
The biggest position player prospect this team has to offer is 2012 draftee Mike Zunino, who was excellent in his short time in AA last year and may make the large jump to the Majors at some point this season. The Mariners have had catcher woes for years now, and they'll be hoping Zunino is a long-term choice behind the plate. The team is loaded with pitcher prospects, from Taijuan Walker, who spent his entire age-19 season in AA, and could be a second ace to compliment Hernandez. Danny Hultzen is an impressive left-handed prospect who is close to big-league ready, whilst Brandon Maurer and James Paxton could both be impact arms in the rotation or bullpen this year. Nick Franklin may take over from Brendan Ryan at shortstop once the team decides it needs the offense more than the defense, although he needs to stop being a switch-hitter and concentrate on raking from the left side. There is a lot to be excited about in the M's rotation, and some of it is close to being ready to help out in the Majors. Overall grade: 8/10.
Overview
The team will get a boost from the new entrants to the division - the Houston Astros, and if the hitters can get into a groove they may even stay in the play-off hunt for a large part of the season. Ultimately, the rotation is a little too reliant on Felix Hernandez, and the offense lacks the MVP-calibre bat they have been searching for all off-season. Given the power of their farm system I wouldn't be surprised to see them deal away prospects for the likes of Giancarlo Stanton at some point, but unless they are able to do that I don't seem them finishing near the top of this division.
Prediction: 80-82
Gif to Watch
You probably won't hear many people comparing Tom Wilhelmsen with Clayton Kershaw, but this eerily similar curveball redefined 'knee-buckling'
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