2012 Season
After their World Series triumph in 2011, the St. Louis Cardinals entered the 2012 season with expectations higher than ever. The regular season ended up being a bit disappointing, as the Cards made the play-offs as the second wildcard team, but in the post-season they beat both the Braves in a one-off game and the Nationals in the NLDS. They then held a 3-1 lead over the Giants in the Championship Series, but lost the next three games on the trot to ensure they did not visit consecutive World Series. Matt Holliday continued to be the teams best hitter, putting up a .295/.379/.497 triple-slash and Yadier Molina proved he is highly capable at the plate as well as behind it, with a .315/.373/.501 triple-slash in a breakout season. On the mound, Adam Wainwright made a successful return from Tommy John surgery as he threw 198 innings with an ERA of 3.94 and 184 strikeouts. The ace of the rotation surprisingly ended up being Kyle Lohse who had an ERA of 2.86 and minuscule 1.09 WHIP. Injuries to Rafael Furcal, and Chris Carpenter have rather derailed the 2013 season before it has begun, but the Cardinals were just one game away from a World Series appearance last year, despite an 88-74 record that was good for second in the division.
Off-Season Moves
IN: Randy Choate, Ty Wiggington, Ronny Cedeno
OUT: Kyle Lohse, Lance Berkman
Overview: The Cardinals didn't really need to make many moves heading into the 2013 season, and accordingly they didn't. Randy Choate is a handy left-hander to have in the bullpen, and his 3.03 ERA between Miami and the Dodgers last season suggests he has plenty left in the tank. There can be questions posed about the decision to sign a 37 year old to a three year contract, but Choate wasn't an expensive acquisition so it will probably be allowed to slide. Wiggington and Cedeno should really be nothing more than bench bats, although Furcal's injury may open the door for Cedeno to compete for an opening day job. The loss of Lohse may prove decisive now that Carpenter has gone down, but I think the Red Birds have the rotation depth to still put up great numbers. Berkman was injured for the majority of the 2012 season, and would have no place on the team even if he was healthy, so his loss is negligible. Overall, the Cardinals didn't do much, and they didn't need to. Overall grade: 5/10
| Expected Opening Day Line-up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | Player | Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR) |
| CF | Jon Jay | .354/.412/2.6 |
| 1B | Allen Craig | .354/.519/1.9 |
| LF | Matt Holliday | .385/.516/3.5 |
| RF | Carlos Beltran | .354/.474/2.2 |
| C | Yadier Molina | .350/.426/4.6 |
| 3B | David Freese | .368/.476/2.3 |
| 2B | Daniel Descalso | .322/.363/1.0 |
| SS | Ronny Cedeno | .306/.361/0.4 |
| Expected rotation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Player | Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR) |
| 1 | Adam Wainwright | 203/3.33/4.2 |
| 2 | Jaime Garcia | 180/3.60/3.4 |
| 3 | Jake Westbrook | 173/4.21/1.8 |
| 4 | Lance Lynn | 185/3.84/2.0 |
| 5 | Shelby Miller | 133/4.14/2.0 |
Position Players
A brief glance at the 2013 projections and you get a pretty good idea why the Cardinals are considered by some to have the most potent line-up in baseball. Each of the top six hitters are projected to have OBP's higher than .350, and all but Jon Jay have considerable power to boot. Jay continued to be quietly superb atop the line-up in 2012, getting on base at a .373 clip with 19 steals and excellent defense to go with it. Allen Craig was the breakout candidate in this line-up last year, finally staying healthy enough to put up some great numbers, with a .307/.354/.522 triple-slash in just 119 games. The best hitter in the line-up is probably the highly underrated Matt Holliday, whose 9 year career-low in batting average is .286, with his OBP above .378 in each of the past seven seasons and considerable power (slugging in the .500's) to boot. At age 33 there may be some concerns about health, but if he can stay on the field he's a sure bet for a superb season at the plate.
Carlos Beltran began to show signs of his age last year, with the average slipping to .269, although he still cranked 32 home runs and vitally was able to stay on the field for 151 games, although his second-half dip in form is cause for concern. With his 36th birthday approaching, the speed has all but disappeared, but he still has prodigious power and elite plate discipline that should allow him to be productive. Yadier Molina's defense has always been the best in the Majors, but in 2012 the bat began to swing hot too, as he set career highs in average (.315), OBP (.373) and slugging (.501). Some regression is to be expected, but he has proven remarkably durable and will continue to be a force in this line-up. David Freese is another player who seems to pass by unnoticed, and in 2012 he finally remained healthy and put up a .293/.372/.467 triple-slash with 20 bombs. Descalso will fight with Matt Carpenter for the second base job, with Descalso undoubtedly a superior defender, but Carpenters excellent bat possibly meaning the Cards forgive his poor defense. The injury to Furcal has left the Cards exposed at shortstop, with Cedeno, Kozma and Ryan Jackson all vying for the job in Spring Training. Overall, this is a line-up that gets on base, hits for power and has weapons at each position. Staying healthy might be the biggest challenge, but there is no doubt in my mind that this is one of the most productive units in baseball. Overall grade: 9/10.
Pitching
The pre-season injury to Chris Carpenter was a cruel blow for this unit, but it still has a lot of talent. Adam Wainwright got back into his groove last season and will look to discover his pre-Tommy-John form that would make him a Cy Young contender. Jaime Garcia struggled a little in 2012, both with inconsistency and injury, although there were signs that he can go back to being a strong innings-eater. Jake Westbrook has been a little-noticed workhorse in this rotation for the past few seasons, logging an ERA under 4 last year as he won 13 games. Lance Lynn was a real surprise package in 2012, winning an eye-opening 18 games as he proved his stuff can convert from the bullpen to the rotation (he struck out hitters at a rate better than one per inning). He faltered a little down the stretch however, and there were some attitude issues that cropped up when he was put in the bullpen in the post-season, but he has the dominant stuff to be productive for the Cards. The fifth spot in the rotation is now up for grabs, with Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller seemingly the two jockeying for it. The former was impressive in his 107 innings of work last season, with an ERA of 3.53. However, Miller is a big-time prospect who struggled a little in AAA last season, but could earn a spot in the rotation after an excellent September and post-season.
The bullpen is led by Jason Motte, who excelled in his first year as the full-time closer, locking down 42 games with a 2.75 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. His main set-up man is the 29 year old Mitchell Boggs, who had 34 holds in a fine season from the pen, with an ERA of 2.21. Edward Mujica also had a good season out of the pen as the end-game trio proved one of the best in the Majors. This season, it appears they will be joined by flamethrower Trevor Rosenthal who was lights out after his September call-up in 2012, with his post-season outings a particular highlight. Randy Choate and Marc Rzepczynski will be the left-handed arms, as this bullpen figures to be one of the best in the NL once more. Overall, this is a unit with depth and powerful bullpen arms. How they cope with the losses of Lohse and Carpenter will be interesting, but they have the personnel to do it. Overall grade: 8/10.
Prospects
This is a farm-system that is loaded with talent, ranking first in Keith Law's organisational rankings. The name on most people's lips is Oscar Taveras, a corner outfielder, with an excellent hit tool, good power and some speed to boot. He's probably at, or close to Major League ready, but with no room for him at the moment he'll refine his craft at AAA until a spot opens up. The aforementioned Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal are both ready to produce at the big league level, and young second baseman Kolten Wong may find himself in the starting line-up before the season is over. With so much talent ready to produce at the Major League level, you'd be forgiven for thinking the system has little depth, but that's not the case, with the team carrying other young pitchers and position players that could have an impact in a few years time. Overall grade: 10/10.
Overview
If I could guarantee that this team could stay healthy all season, they could be potential World Series contenders. As it is, they've proved susceptible to injury even before the season has started, and the losses of Lohse and Carpenter from the rotation may prove tough to ignore. However, this is a line-up stacked with talent, a rotation that has the ability to win games by itself and the prospects to ensure this team is competing for years to come. I think they push the Reds all the way this season.
Prediction: 96-66
Gif to Watch
Again, I'm going to cheat a bit and give you two GIFs (I'm sorry!), both of them highlighting one of the reasons Jon Jay is an underrated center fielder - his defense.
This first catch was a circus effort against Houston
And the second is this incredible NLDS effort against the Nationals
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