2012 Season
Despite winning 90 games in 2012, the Rays were unable to make the play-offs, missing out on the second wildcard spot by three games. The Rays were able to win 90 games despite the absence of star third baseman Evan Longoria, who was able to play just 74 games, thanks largely to the efforts of Cy Young winner David Price. Price recorded a 2.56 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on his way to a 20-5 record, striking out hitters at a rapid rate as he joined the echelon of elite starting pitchers. Although missing out on the post-season was a disappointment for Rays fans, the fact that they continue to compete with a minuscule payroll is cause for optimism.
Off-Season Moves
IN: Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson, James Loney, Wil Myers, Shelley Duncan, Roberto Hernandez
OUT: Burke Badenhop, Reid Brignac, Wade Davis, Carlos Pena, James Shields, B.J. Upton
Overview: The Rays are never going to be big spenders in the free agent market, but they continue to cycle through intriguing players, from reclamation projects like Yunel Escobar to glove-only first baseman James Loney. The biggest move they made was trading away James Shields and Wade Davis to Kansas City in return for Wil Myers and a couple of other prospects. Whilst Shields had been a highly productive pitcher in TB, Myers is a powerful outfield prospect who should help the team sooner rather than later. The loss of B.J. Upton puts more pressure on the shoulders of Desmond Jennings, but overall it was a solid off-season for the Rays. Overall grade: 5/10.
| Projected Opening Day Line-up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | Player | Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR) |
| CF | Desmond Jennings | .337/.417/3.1 |
| DH | Matt Joyce | .354/.467/1.9 |
| 3B | Evan Longoria | .366/.516/4.8 |
| RF | Ben Zobrist | .369/.440/4.7 |
| SS | Yunel Escobar | .344/.377/2.2 |
| 1B | James Loney | .337/.406/0.2 |
| LF | Sam Fuld | .315/.335/0.7 |
| C | Jose Molina | .281/.332/0.7 |
| 2B | Kelly Johnson | .328/.407/1.6 |
| Projected rotation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Player | Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR) |
| 1 | David Price | 216/3.13/4.8 |
| 2 | Jeremy Hellickson | 187/3.51/1.6 |
| 3 | Matt Moore | 202/3.25/2.8 |
| 4 | Alex Cobb | 169/3.73/1.8 |
| 5 | Roberto Hernandez | 154/4.21/0.6 |
Position Players
The line-up is the weakest part of this Tampa Bay team, but it's best hitter, Evan Longoria, is a perennial MVP threat when he stays on the field. At the age of 27, he may be primed for a monster year after putting up a .289/.369/.527 triple-slash with 17 homers in 74 games last season. His production and health may well define the Rays season, as they were 47-27 in games he played in last year, so if he stays healthy he'll be a massive boost for this Rays line-up. Desmond Jennings is yet to truly live up to the hype he was given as a prospect, as his .246/.314/.388 triple-slash last season was far from lead-off material. He has a lot of speed, and still has the skills that made him a top prospect, but he'll need to improve that OBP if he wants to be a successful lead-off hitter. Matt Joyce continued to crush right-handed pitching (.270/.364/.493 triple-slash over the past three seasons) whilst being hopeless against lefties (.197/.276/.322 over the same period). As long as the Rays only send him out against right-handers, he should be primed for another big season. Ben Zobrist is one of the more underrated hitters in the American League, with superb versatility (can play second base, shortstop or outfield) good durability (150+ games each of the last four seasons) and elite on-base skills (.377 last season). He is also a perennial 20/20 threat and has racked up 26.6 wins above replacement over the past four seasons (that's more than Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols).
Yunel Escobar had a poor season in 2012, hitting just .253 with 9 home runs, and getting in hot water for wearing eye black that had a homophobic slur written on it in Spanish. He did put up a .290/.369/.413 triple-slash in 2011 and plays elite defense at shortstop, so if Tampa Bay can turn him around (as they have done with many before him) it could prove to be a shrewd signing. With Luke Scott down injured for the start of the season, Sam Fuld may get more at-bats in left field but both he and Jose Molina are hopeless with the bat and offer almost all of their value on defense. Like Escobar, Kelly Johnson had a down season in 2012 with the Blue Jays, hitting just .225, but he has the potential to put up a .280/.350/.450 slash line and will look to get his career back on track with the Rays. The loss of B.J. Upton has this line-up a little lacking in star quality, but if Longoria can stay healthy, Myers can be an impact performer as a rookie and some of the reclamation projects work out they could be better than expected. Overall grade: 6/10.
Pitching
Even with the off-season loss of James Shields, the clear strength of this Tampa Bay team is the pitching. The team is led by Cy Young winner David Price who had a monster year in 2012, and will look to continue that into 2013. His fastball is one of the best in the Majors, with opponents hitting just .225 off it, and he complements it well with sharp breaking stuff. He may be entering his final year with the Rays, as they will look to trade him before he hits free agency. After a superb rookie season, many expected Jeremy Hellickson to regress, pointing at his unsustainable peripherals, and whilst he was unable to match the insane 2011 numbers, he was still an excellent pitcher, with a 3.10 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He'll never be much of a strikeout guy, but with the solid defense behind him, pitching to contact seems to work.
Matt Moore didn't quite live up to expectations as a rookie, but a 3.81 ERA and 1.35 WHIP at the age of 22 is nothing to sniff at. His strikeout rate remained elite, but he had some problems with control that hampered his ability. I expect him to take a big step forward in 2013 and become one of the game's elite pitchers. Alex Cobb has become a trendy name in Spring Training after posting a 2.81 ERA and striking out 28 in 25 innings. He has good strikeout stuff, and after putting up a 4.03 ERA in 136 innings last season appears ready to make the next step. Roberto Hernandez (the former Fausto Carmona) has a hard sinker that should play up with an excellent infield defense behind him, but he may find himself ousted from the rotation if Chris Archer impresses at AAA to start the season, or by Jeff Niemann if he is unable to find a groove.
Fernando Rodney was one of the surprises of the 2012 season. Having not posted a sub-four ERA for five consecutive seasons, Rodney was thrust into the closer role and subsequently was the most dominant ninth inning man in baseball, saving 48 games with a ridiculous 0.60 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. The main reason for his success was a greatly reduced walk rate, from between 4 and 8 BB/9 to a measly 1.81, as his knockout fastball/changeup combination left hitters floundering. Kyle Farnsworth, who's injury opened the door for Rodney looks set to be the main set-up man in Tampa Bay this year after he posted a 2.18 ERA and 0.99 WHIP as the closer in 2011. Joel Peralta enjoyed a successful season as the main set-up man in 2012, with a 3.63 ERA on his way to 37 holds. Jake McGee figures to be the main lefty out of the bullpen, whilst Jeff Niemann will try to emulate the success of Wade Davis after making the transition from the rotation. Overall, this is a pitching rotation that is strong at the top and has plenty of depth, with a Cy Young winner leading it and several strong young arms backing him up. The bullpen was lights-out last season, and I expect it to be equally successful this year, especially with Joe Maddon calling the shots from the dugout. Overall grade: 9/10.
Prospects
In order to compete with the other high-spending franchises in the AL East, the Rays farm system has to be good. And it is. The top prospect is power hitting right fielder Wil Myers who slugged 37 home runs between AA and AAA last season. He's pretty much big league ready and figures to make the roster once his arbitration clock has been delayed. For this year, he'll be a source of power and walks, but in future years he could become an MVP-calibre player, and the kind of slugger the Rays need to go with Longoria. The Rays have a good recent history of producing young starters, and they have three big-league ready arms that will have to wait due to the strength of the current rotation. Chris Archer has outstanding raw stuff, and Jake Odorizzi acquired in the James Shields trade projects as a solid innings-eater in the middle of the rotation. This is a system with power up top and plenty of depth, so the future looks bright for the Rays. Overall grade: 9/10.
Overview
It's hard not to want the Rays to do well. Every year they are able to compete with teams on double the payroll, by miraculously turning an awful player into an all-star. If Longoria stays healthy and Myers can have an impact as a rookie, the line-up will score some runs. The rotation is one of the strongest in the Majors, and with a lot of depth in the minors, although David Price will be leaned upon to win 20 games again with the departure of Shields. This team isn't amazing on paper, but it has some handy tools that could all click, especially with Maddon running the ship.
Prediction: 91-71
Gif to Watch
Matt Moore has superb raw stuff and projects as a future number one starter. Here, he throws a filthy breaking ball for strike three.
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