2012 Season
The Blue Jays entered 2012 with a potentially powerful line-up, but a starting rotation devoid of much depth or consistency, and it was the starting rotation that ultimately let them down, with Ricky Romero struggling (-1.7 WAR) and Brandon Morrow suffering an untimely injury amid a breakout year. Jose Bautista was able to play just 92 games until a wrist injury sidelined him but Edwin Encarnacion had a breakout season, putting up a .280/.384/.557 triple-slash with 42 homers. The 73-89 record was no less than was expected, although after a 27-24 start to the season, some fans may have been left wondering 'what if'.
Off-Season Moves
IN: R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, Melky Cabrera, Josh Thole
OUT: Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson, Henderson Alvarez, Jeff Mathis, Adeiny Hechavarria
Overview: No-one had a bigger off-season than the Toronto Blue Jays. They bought out the spine of the Marlins roster, acquiring an elite shortstop, two excellent innings-eaters and a speedy utility man in the process. What made it more outstanding was the fact they barely had to give up the entire farm in order to do so, and their top prospect, Travis D'Arnaud was only given away in the Dickey deal. Not satisfied at trading for a whole new rotation, the Jays then went out and signed Melky Cabrera to give them one of the most formidable line-ups in the AL. Whether this high-spending plan works is yet to be seen, but there's no doubt this incredible off-season has Jays fans partying like it's 1993. Overall grade: 9/10.
| Projected Opening Day Line-up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | Player | Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR) |
| SS | Jose Reyes | .352/.434/4.1 |
| LF | Melky Cabrera | .348/.432/2.5 |
| RF | Jose Bautista | .377/.529/4.6 |
| DH | Edwin Encarnacion | .359/.504/2.8 |
| CF | Colby Rasmus | .312/.427/2.4 |
| 1B | Adam Lind | .329/.460/1.4 |
| C | J.P. Arencibia | .278/.451/2.3 |
| 2B | Emilio Bonifacio | .336/.350/0.4 |
| 3B | Maicer Izturis | .333/.360/1.2 |
| Projected rotation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Player | Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR) |
| 1 | R.A. Dickey | 226/3.58/2.5 |
| 2 | Brandon Morrow | 187/3.47/2.6 |
| 3 | Mark Buehrle | 205/3.78/1.6 |
| 4 | Josh Johnson | 196/3.21/2.8 |
| 5 | J.A. Happ | 161/4.30/0.5 |
Position Players
This Blue Jays line-up has the potential to score a lot of runs, particularly playing at the Rogers Centre. Jose Bautista has made a name for himself as a long ball specialist, crushing 54 homers in 2010, 43 in 2011 and 27 in just 92 games last season. His willingness to take a walk also means he keeps his OBP well into the .350 range, even if the average is far from spectacular. A wrist injury for a hitter is the equivalent of an elbow injury for a pitcher, so there is a chance for regression if he has not fully healed. Jose Reyes was a bright point in an otherwise disappointing season in Miami, as he hit .287 with 40 steals. He should be a spark-plug atop this line-up, a decent bet to lead the league in runs scored, and playing at the Rogers centre may even allow him an uptick in home runs. Melky Cabrera was leading the league in batting average at .346 through 116 games until he got busted for PED use. Whilst sustaining an average that high will be impossible, he's still a good bet to hit around .300 with double digits home runs and steals.
Colby Rasmus continues to be a huge disappointment for the Blue Jays, as his .223/.289/.400 triple-slash in 2012 was far from impressive. The 149 strikeouts is the main cause for this batting average drain, and whilst he continues to flash 20-homer power, his leash will be shorter than ever this year. Adam Lind struggled in 2012, hitting just .227 in the first half before being demoted to AAA. He did hit better upon his return, bumping the average up to .255 but his 2009 season looks like being the outlier rather than a sign of things to come. J.P. Arencibia has prodigious power, especially for a catcher, but his on-base skills are poor, thanks largely to a woeful 0.22 BB/K ratio. If he can stay healthy, he is a threat to hit 30 home runs, but in a line-up with few high-average hitters, he is another player who struggles to get the ball in play consistently. Bonifacio is a speedy utility guy, who could steal 50 bases if given the chance, but he has no power and hit just .258 last season in Miami. Maicer Izturis will fill the void at third base whilst Brett Lawrie is out injured, and if the latter can stay healthy for the rest of the season he might be one of the better hitters in this line-up. Overall, this is a line-up with a lot of power but a worrying lack of high average or high OBP guys. If they all find their groove it could easily be the best line-up in the Majors, but there may be some shocking slumps when the bats aren't clicking. Overall grade: 7/10.
Pitching
R.A. Dickey had a monster season in New York last year on his way to a Cy Young award, posting a 2.73 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, an incredible feat considering he is essentially a one-pitch guy. His hard knuckleball, that he tends to throw around 80mph, is a seemingly uncontrollable pitch, but Dickey found a way to control it in 2012, issuing just 54 walks in 233 innings. If he can keep the knuckler dancing, there is no reason why he can't repeat that success this year. Mark Buehrle truly defines the term 'innings-eater', throwing a mind-boggling 2,625 innings over the past twelve seasons. He's surpassed 200 innings pitched in each of those seasons, proving remarkably durable to injuries and incredibly consistent (2+ WAR in every single season). His 3.74 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with Miami last year were right in line with his career rates, and the Jays will be hoping he can continue to be a stud middle-of-the-rotation starter in Toronto. After posting a 3.81 ERA in 31 starts after returning from injury, I like the chances of Josh Johnson putting up a big season in Toronto. His 6.4 and 6.8 win seasons in 2009 and 2010 show how big the upside can be. The fifth spot was expected to go to Ricky Romero, but after a disastrous Spring, he was demoted all the way to single-A, allowing J.A. Happ to fill the spot after posting a 4.69 ERA with the Jays last season.
Sergio Santos pitched just 5 innings in 2012 before shoulder surgery ended his season. He's back in action this year, but will serve as the primary set-up man for Casey Janssen who excelled in the closer role last year. Janssen saved 22 games with a 2.54 ERA and 0.86 WHIP, striking out 67 in 63 innings of work. Darren Oliver will return for his 20th season in baseball as the lefty specialist after posting a 2.06 ERA in 56 innings last season. Aaron Loup had a good first season with the Jays, posting a 2.64 ERA and 0.91 WHIP whilst not allowing a home run in 30 innings of work. Esmil Rogers will also join the bullpen after performing well with the Cleveland Indians in the second half of 2012, although there are some concerns over his past control issues. Overall, this is a rotation with a Cy Young winner at the top and three excellent workhorses beneath him. The bullpen is far from dominant, but if Janssen can continue from his 2012 form then it shouldn't have too much of a problem closing games out. Overall grade: 8/10.
Prospects
After their major dealing during the off-season, the Jays farm system is barer than it has been in recent years. They still have top pitching prospect Aaron Sanchez, who was dominant in 90 innings at Class A in 2012, and looks like being a future ace if he can improve his command. He isn't big league ready yet, but the stuff is so good the Jays refused to discuss trades involving him. For this year, the Jays will likely look to Marcus Stroman to have an impact out of the bullpen, and Sean Nolin could provide rotation depth if the Jays struggle with injuries. The farm system isn't loaded with talent, but considering the quality of their big league roster, it doesn't need to be. Overall grade: 3/10.
Overview
The Jays have made it obvious that they are playing to win, and win now. The AL East is wide open this year, but I expect them to be at or near the top all the way. If Bautista and Lawrie stay healthy and the rotation is able to be as dominant as they look on paper, this is a team that could arguably go deep in the play-offs. I'm not convinced the World Series is on the cards just yet, but it's hard to argue that the Jays aren't going to be highly competitive this season.
Prediction: 93-69
Gif to Watch
How is it Dickey can be so effective when hitters know what's coming? Here's how.
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So there you have it, 30 teams in 30 days. A big thank you to those who took the time to read my previews and comment on them, it's greatly appreciated, and sorry to anyone who's team I was harsh on - I try not to be biased! Other notable thank you's must go to:
Rotochamp, off whom I stole most of the line-up and rotation projections
Fangraphs, off whom I stole most of the stat projections (Bill James for OBP, SLG, IP and ERA; the ZiPS projections for WAR)
Keith Law, off whom I stole all of my prospect knowledge
Other baseball writers, off whom I stole cool stats or GIFs.
Tableizer.com, without whom I would have been unable to create those snazzy tables.
And finally, mercifully, opening day is here. From today through October it's baseball, baseball and more baseball. What more could you want?!
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