Saturday 30 March 2013

5 Bold Predictions for the 2013 Season

With the regular season up and running tomorrow, the excruciatingly long wait for baseball is almost over. Last season I produced a list of five predictions, with varying results...

So, can I pick this year's Mike Trout? Who will be the 2013 Baltimore Orioles? Here are my bold predictions for the 2013 season:

1. The Yankees lose 90 games

Michael Pineda, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira have all been ruled out for sections of the season, and guys like Phil Hughes, Derek Jeter and Chien-Ming Wang enter the season with large question marks above their head. The Red Sox contrived to lose 93 games last year, and if anything they had a better roster than this Yankee side. In all honesty, I don't see this prediction coming exactly true, but you've got to be bold!

2. This year, Giancarlo Stanton will lead the majors in home runs

Yes, I'm repeating my prediction from last year. I might have been correct in 2012 were it not for injuries, and if Stanton can stay healthy I think he could walk away with the home run crown. He has prodigious power to all fields, and is showing more consistent contact rates that should allow him to tap into that power more often. Yes, he's playing in a line-up full of AAA scrubs and yes, he's playing at one of the Majors hardest parks to hit home runs at. Stanton is just that good.

3. Yu Darvish wins the Cy Young

I'm not the only person predicting great things from Darvish this season, but I think he takes such a great step that he wins 18+ games, records an ERA in the low three's and strikes out the most hitters in the Majors on his way to the Cy Young. He has dazzling stuff, and after battling control issues in the first half of 2012 (53 walks in 102 innings pre all-star break) he was lights-out at the end of the year (2.21 ERA in September). The park in Arlington will damage his ERA and WHIP, but I still think he misses so many bats he can take the most prestigious award a pitcher can this season.

4. The Nationals win 110 games

This is a pretty tough feat. Only 6 teams have done it in baseball history. But the Nationals have dominant starting pitching, a lights-out bullpen and a line-up that will continue to rake. Bryce Harper takes another step forward, Ryan Zimmerman gets back into form, Desmond and Espinosa combine for 50 homers and 40 steals. Strasburg contends for a Cy Young award, Zimmermann and Gio dominate, Soriano saves 50 games. I'm not saying it's likely, but maybe, just maybe, it's possible. And I may as well go out on a limb.

5. Adam Dunn has more strikeouts than any pitcher in baseball

The single-season record for strikeouts by a hitter is 223 (Dunn struck out 222 times last season) and were I to guess I'd say the top pitcher in baseball gets about 250 strikeouts. It's going to be tough, but Dunn just needs a little bit of luck to not fall his way, and he could easily challenge the league leader. Maybe Mark Reynolds will be right there with him.

In case you're not convinced, here's a clip of Dunn striking out:


So, what do you think? Plain stupid or on the periphery of Nate Silver-esque prediction genius?

1 comment:

  1. Not a fan of the Dunn prediction for obvious reasons :p

    Pretty impressed with your results from last years prediction

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