Friday 1 March 2013

Power rankings: Update

My last power rankings post (which can be found here) was nearly two months ago now, and though we're still a good month away from Opening Day, this feels like a good time to give them an update and find out which teams are on the ascendancy and which are flagging before a pitch has been thrown. Some major moves have happened in the time in between, such as the Justin Upton trade and the Michael Bourn signing. What's been the effect on my rankings? The previous ranking can be found in parenthesis.

1. Washington Nationals (1)

No change at the top. Since my last power rankings were posted, the Nationals have only strengthened with the free agent signing of Rafael Soriano, giving them three of the finest bull-pen guys in the Majors with Soriano, Storen and Clippard. The line-up is solid and varied between lead-off and the eight-hole, this team is poised to play great defense and the pitching is only set to improve. Whisper it, but these guys could win 100 games.

2. Cincinnati Reds (3)

The Reds hop up one spot through no fault of their own. The more I look at the team, the more I like their chances to be the pace-setters in the NL Central and possible the Majors themselves. As I've discussed, I like the chances that the Chapman move makes them a better team, and he quietly makes them one of the better rotations in the National League. He, Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos could all potentially be ace-calibre, and a mixture of Bailey, Arroyo and Leake will give them solid output. Choo fills an immediate need in the lead-off spot, and whilst his defense in center field may cost them a few runs, the team has to be excited about the possibility of Billy Hamilton getting a call-up midway through the year.

3. Detroit Tigers (4)

Whereas the Nationals and Reds may be clubs that rely on a number of good, 2-3 win players, the Tigers are the polar opposite. Their line-up is strong, even if only because the 3-4 hitters are reigning AL MVP Miguel Cabrera and left-handed power bat Prince Fielder. The return of Victor Martinez will put an end to the horror-show from the 5 spot they endured last season, and the exit of Delmon Young may prove to be addition by subtraction. Verlander will put up Cy-Young calibre numbers, and Scherzer and Fister are fast making names for themselves. Defense and bullpen may be issues during the course of the season, but the Tigers should run away with the AL Central.

4. Toronto Blue Jays (2)

The Blue Jays have slipped down my rankings a bit, which is more a reflection of the fact that I got a bit caught up in the hype after their massive off-season, rather than any deficiency on their part. Encarnacion and Bautista will bring the power, and Reyes, Cabrera and Bonifacio/Davis will run wild on the bases. The rotation still looks a little shaky, but I like the chances that Dickey will repeat, and I think Morrow could be in for a huge season. The American League East looks set to be a wild division this season, but I expect the revamped Jays to be in the mix from start to finish.

5. Atlanta Braves (7)

Not happy with securing the services of one Upton brother, the Braves went out and pulled off a seven player trade with the Diamondbacks for Justin Upton. This move not only gave the Braves one of the best defensive outfields in baseball, but also a line-up packed with power (and strikeout) potential. It's not just at the plate that the Braves can do damage though, with a rotation consisting of Medlen, Beachy, Maholm, Hudson and Minor that boasts strength in depth. The bullpen has become an area of considerable strength for the Braves, but I wonder if the Braves will end up wishing they had Chipper handling the hot corner for one more season.

6. San Francisco Giants (5)

The Giants tumble a spot through no fault of their own. They deserve more respect having just won their second ring in three seasons, but I just struggle to see where the runs will come from. Buster Posey was incredible in 2012 on his way to the NL MVP title, but regression is surely due (if only in the BABIP department) and someone will need to put up numbers. I like Brandon Belt to start fulfilling his potential, but Hunter Pence has disappointed and Marco Scutaro simply isn't as good as he was in last year's post-season. Cain and Bumgarner are a terrific 1-2 pairing, and whilst Vogelsong continues to belie his age, Lincecum's woes must be concerning and the rotation has little depth. The bullpen will continue to be underrated, but I think the Giants will have a race on their hands for the NL West title.

7. Los Angeles Dodgers (6)

The Dodgers will be the team trying to upset the Giants apple cart. Earning the services of Greinke was a major coup for the Dodgers who easily boast the best rotation depth in the Majors (Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, Billingsley, Beckett, Capuano, Lilly, Harang). The line-up isn't too bad either, headlined by Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez and the fast-healing Carl Crawford. On paper, the team could be one of the best in the NL, but there are injury worries, particularly for Kemp and Crawford, and Ramirez and Gonzalez may be on the downslope of their career. If everything goes to plan, the Dodgers could be the best team in the Majors though.

8. Texas Rangers (8)

No change for the team in Arlington. I still think they're missing an impact bat after the departure of Hamilton, and they would be wise to try and find a spot for uber-prospect Jurickson Profar. The rotation has good depth though, and the Rangers are always in contention come September. Don't rule them out of signing Lohse just yet either, although I think they missed a trick by letting Upton go to Atlanta.

9. St. Louis Cardinals (10)

The Cardinals are generally criminally underrated in my opinion, and I have perhaps done them a disservice myself by ranking them this low. Let's not forget they were one game away from reaching the World Series (twice!) having won it the year before. The rotation is a quiet strength, although the crushing loss of Chris Carpenter negates this a little. The line-up boasts solid but unspectacular hitters, with the likes of Molina, Holliday, Craig and Beltran expected to carry the load again. If anyone will challenge the Reds in the central this season, it will be the Cards.

10. Los Angeles Angels (9)

Like their cross-town rivals, the Angels are spending big, and stole the off-season show for the second straight season when they plucked Hamilton from the Rangers grasp. Trout/Hamilton/Pujols promises to be an extraordinary combo in the line-up for the Halos, but unfortunately none of them can pitch. A lot of pressure will once more be on the shoulders of Weaver, and C.J. Wilson will need to start pitching like the Angels paid for him to do. This team is the closest to boom or bust you might find.

11. Tampa Bay Rays (11)

The Rays do not get enough credit for fielding a competitive team year after year despite their ballpark and pay-roll issues. Their competitiveness will once again depend heavily on the health of Evan Longoria, but I think the rotation can be elite even without James Shields, and the Rays are bound to find a hidden gem somewhere as they seem to every season. Rule them out at your peril.

12. Oakland Athletics (12)

I think the rotation is underrated, with the young pitchers looking likely to continue their stellar work from last season and Brett Anderson continuing his fine comeback from Tommy John. Cespedes did better than expected in his first year, and the shrewd trade for Jed Lowrie gives them good infield depth. I don't expect them to win the AL West again, but they were no one-season wonder.

13. Arizona Diamondbacks (13)

The off-season was a bizarre one for the D-Backs, although ultimately I don't think it was disastrous. The line-up is still strong, if lacking a little in star-power and the rotation could be one of the more underrated in the NL, especially if Wade Miley can repeat and Trevor Cahill continues to improve. They might struggle in the competitive NL West, but they won't be pushovers.

14. Boston Red Sox (16)

The Red Sox ascend to 14th in my estimations. I don't think this team is primed for the AL East title, although they always have a chance. The rotation needs to get over the 2012 horror show, and whilst the newly formed line-up has a lot of upside, there are injury and performance concerns wherever you look. The health of David Ortiz is starting to look key - and the possibility that Xander Bogaerts will get his first taste of big league action in September has to be exciting for Sox fans.

15. Milwaukee Brewers (15)

Status quo for the Brew Crew, although the injuries to Corey Hart and Mat Gamel are disconcerting. The rotation has question marks after the departure of Greinke, and the line-up will rely on a bounce-back from Weeks and that Carlos Gomez was not a fluke in 2012. Braun makes this team a perennial threat and if they can get over the bullpen disaster from 2012 they might be contenders.

16. New York Yankees (14)

A sobering ranking for the Bronx boys. The line-up lacks bite after second baseman Cano, particularly after the injury to Granderson. Sabathia/Kuroda are a decent one-two punch, but there are concerns about the back-end of the rotation, and Mariano Rivera's health will continue to be an issue. The Yankees always seem to find a way to win, and it's possible the old boys pull out an AL East crown again, but in their urgency to get under the luxury tax threshold may be affecting their World Series chances this year.

17. Cleveland Indians (20)

This ranking relies on a bounce-back from the rotation, in particular Masterson, but the line-up gives Indians fans cause for excitement. This team will strike out, a lot, but will have it's fair share of fireworks, with Santana, Cabrera, Stubbs, Reynolds, Swisher and Bourn all exciting play-makers.

18. Kansas City Royals (17)

The Royals showed they wanted to win this year when they traded away uber prospect Wil Myers for James Shields, and they will need him to be the ace they've never had if they are going to challenge in the AL Central this season. The line-up is stacked with potential, but I see this team struggling for a wildcard spot at best.

19. Baltimore Orioles (19)

Having done little in the off-season to improve on their roster, I expect the Orioles to struggle in the AL East this season. It's possible they pull off a ridiculous record in one-run games again, and it would be harsh to call their incredible bullpen success a fluke. But I think a return towards .500 is inevitable for the Orioles, who are at the disadvantage of playing in a highly competitive division.

20. Philadelphia Phillies (18)

The rotation is stacked at the top, with Halladay, Lee and Hamels all Cy-Young calibre when on top of their game. Unfortunately, the line-up heavily relies on comeback seasons from Utley and Howard, and with Michael and Delmon Young potentially absorbing 1,000 at-bats between them, I don't think this line-up will score many runs.

21. Chicago White Sox (21)

This team pushed Detroit all the way in 2012, but I see regression coming for Rios, De Aza and Sale. The rotation isn't bad, especially with the return of John Danks but Konerko will once again be the main bat in a weak line-up and I don't think they'll have the firepower to remain competitive. Would love to be proven wrong again though!

22. Seattle Mariners (25)

The Mariners have decided to address their offensive woes the cheap way, by bringing in the fences at Safeco and buying old, power-hitting defensive liabilities. Morse, Ibanez, Bay and Morales might go through hot-streaks, but will also have maddening cold-streaks, and if this team wants to genuinely improve, they'll need big steps forward from Montero, Ackley and Seager.

23. San Diego Padres (22)

The Padres have a bright future, and I think if they trade Headley at the right time they could really set themselves on the right track. This year, the team looks set to build on a furious stretch run from last season (they were 42-33 after the all-star break) and let the young talent continue to develop.

24. Chicago Cubs (23)

I like what the Cubs did this off-season, and whilst their still some way from contention, I genuinely think Cubs fans have reason to be optimistic. Rizzo was superb in his small taste of big-league action and Starlin Castro could be poised for a huge season.

25. Pittsburgh Pirates (24)

The Pirates struggled mightily at the back-end of last season, going 12-29 from August 19th onwards and securing a Major League record 20th consecutive losing season. McCutchen is exciting in the outfield, and the pitching rotation has the potential to at least not be terrible. But I see no reason to think it won't be 21 in a row for the Pittsburgh boys.

26. New York Mets (27)

Fielding possibly the worst outfield in baseball is going to be a concern for the Mets this season, although in the long term I think they were better off holding on to their first round pick. They have some exciting prospects coming through in the form of Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Travis D'Arnaud, but it's the future, not the present that Mets fans want to see.

27. Minnesota Twins (26)

Rotation issues are going to be a concern once again for the Twins who look likely to be the whipping boys of the AL Central. Prospects look like getting a shot in the out-field, and we'll once again see if the Twins decide to trade Mauer come August but this is very much another team with eyes on 2014 already.

28. Miami Marlins (28)

And it's only by virtue of Giancarlo Stanton that they're not lower. A huge firesale in the off-season has made a lot of fans angry and has left the club stripped to the bare. The farm system has been rejuvenated, but it's only a matter of time before Stanton is on his way too, and this team becomes a joke.

29. Colorado Rockies (29)

Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki are legitimate middle-of-the-order sluggers, but the pitching is just terrible. I wouldn't be surprised to see the team finally sell anything of value and try and resurrect the farm system, because they haven't got a chance this season unfortunately.

30. Houston Astros (30)

Welcome to the AL West! I'm excited for this team's future, but they are going to get eaten alive by their division rivals. Fans are most likely excited for the draft.

And there we have it! 1st of March update, with a month before baseball is here. Sorry if I've disrespected your team, would be interested to hear what you have to think!

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