Monday 31 March 2014

Quick Predictions

With proper Opening Day just a matter of hours away, I thought I'd quickly type up my predictions for team records, post-season picture and award winners. Last year I got exactly one of my end of season records correct (for the LA Dodgers), although I was one game away on a few teams and only really look stupid on my predictions for the Blue Jays, Angels and Giants. Let's see if I can do a bit better this season!


AL EAST
TeamRecord
Boston Red Sox93-69
Tampa Bay Rays92-70
New York Yankees84-78
Toronto Blue Jays79-83
Baltimore Orioles77-85

The loss of Ellsbury will hurt the Red Sox, but I think they have more than enough to challenge for the East title once again. Honestly, this is the hardest decision to predict, because any of the five teams could win 90 games if they put it together, so I've hedged my bets a bit. The Rays never seem to do as well as expected, and the Yankees seem to win despite their old age, so it wouldn't surprise me if they win 90 instead. I would be surprised if any of these teams get close to 100 wins.


AL CENTRAL
TeamRecord
Detroit Tigers97-65
Kansas City Royals88-74
Cleveland Indians86-76
Chicago White Sox76-86
Minnesota Twins67-95

The Tigers are the team to beat after swapping Fielder for Kinsler and making room for top prospect Nick Castellanos at the hot corner. I think Porcello is in for a breakout season, and wouldn't be surprised if Verlander gets back to Cy form. The Royals are a trendy sleeper pick, and whilst I see room for improvement, I don't think that rotation is strong enough to win the Central yet. I want the Indians to do well, but I just don't see how they can do it unless the line-up clicks. The White Sox and Twins will have fun battling for last place.


AL WEST
TeamRecord
Oakland Athletics95-67
Los Angeles Angels90-72
Texas Rangers83-81
Seattle Mariners77-85
Houston Astros61-101

I'm all-in on the Athletics this year, quite how they do it I'm not sure, but they put themselves in the hunt every season. I think the Rangers are going to be disappointing this year, just don't like their rotation at all beyond Cy favourite Yu Darvish, and he is struggling with injury to start the season. The Angels have to improve, they just have to, and the Mariners aren't going to be as bad as people think. Can the Astros avoid 100 losses?


NL EAST
TeamRecord
Washington Nationals97-65
Atlanta Braves89-73
New York Mets81-81
Miami Marlins73-89
Philadelphia Phillies70-92

I'm back on the Nationals band-wagon. Harper is primed for a huge season, and if they can stay healthy few teams can match Washington's all-round strength. The Braves rotation is a mess, but they still have a star-studded line-up and can beat up on the easy competition in this division. The Mets are one season away from being competitive, and might turn a few heads with a hot start. The Marlins and Phillies are only worth watching when Jose Fernandez and Cliff Lee are on the mound respectively.


NL CENTRAL
TeamRecord
St. Louis Cardinals99-63
Cincinatti Reds92-70
Pittsburgh Pirates86-76
Milwaukee Brewers78-84
Chicago Cubs66-96

The Cardinals just have so much depth, and so many good young arms that they're the best bet for 100 wins in the Majors this season. An incredible powerhouse of a franchise. The Reds lost Choo, but still have an underrated rotation and a strong enough line-up that they'll be there or thereabouts come September. Plus no more Dusty! Last season wasn't a complete fluke for the Pirates, but I don't see them winning 94 again. The Brewers and Cubs will both be bad, but at least the future is bright for Cubs fans - I'm really excited to see Baez hit the Majors.



NL WEST
TeamRecord
Los Angeles Dodgers96-66
Arizona Diamondbacks85-77
San Francisco Giants80-82
San Diego Padres75-87
Colorado Rockies68-94

Probably the weakest division in baseball, and if they can avoid another sluggish start, the Dodgers should coast to the title. The D-Backs always look like a team that should crack .500, but you don't expect much more, maybe Archie Bradley's promotion can push them over the edge. The Giants just aren't very good any more, but the Padres and Rockies are just worse.

ALCS: Tigers over Rays in 6
NLCS: Cardinals over Nationals in 7

WORLD SERIES: Cardinals over Tigers in 5

Awards

AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young: Jose Fernandez

AL ROTY: Xander Bogaerts
NL ROTY: Travis D'Arnaud

Wacky prediction: George Springer comes up on June 1st, goes 20/20 the rest of the season and then gets wildly overhyped heading into 2015 (see Puig, Yasiel)

Dead cert: It's going to be another mental 162 game season. Enjoy it!

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