2012 Season
Widely expected to finish bottom of the NL East by a sizeable margin, the Mets actually exceeded some expectations. They started the season 4-0 after sweeping the Braves, and were 43-36 after June, but after putting together losing records in July, August and September they finished the season 74-88, just five games ahead of the woeful Marlins. The main bright spot was the pitching of knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. He won 20 games atop the rotation, with 230 strikeouts, a 2.73 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, as he exerted the kind of control rarely associated with a knuckleball pitcher. David Wright put together another strong season and after a horrific first half, Ike Davis began to crush the ball (.888 OPS after the all-star break). Overall, it was a poor season, but not unexpectedly, with a Johan Santana no-hitter (the first in Mets history) the obvious high-point.
Off-Season Moves
IN: Collin Cowgill, John Buck, Travis D'Arnaud, Brandon Lyon, Shaun Marcum
OUT: R.A. Dickey, Josh Thole, Manny Acosta, Ronny Cedeno, Scott Hairston, Andres Torres, Jon Rauch
Overview: No major splashes in the free agent market for the Mets, who actively pursued Michael Bourn but ultimately pulled out when it became apparent that the 11th overall draft pick would be relinquished, and rightly so in my opinion. The Mets traded away R.A. Dickey, the NL Cy Young winner, to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for Travis D'Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard and John Buck. The loss of Dickey will make their rotation worse for this season, but he only had one year left on his contract, and I have no problems with them getting as many prospects as possible in return. Other than that, it was a relatively quiet off-season for the Mets, who continue to build for the future. Overall grade: 4/10.
| Expected Opening Day Line-up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | Player | Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR) |
| SS | Ruben Tejada | .338/.347/2.2 |
| 2B | Daniel Murphy | .352/.438/1.0 |
| 3B | David Wright | .392/.488/3.8 |
| 1B | Ike Davis | .354/.511/1.7 |
| LF | Lucas Duda | .356/.454/0.6 |
| RF | Mike Baxter | .362/.405/0.5 |
| C | John Buck | .298/.384/1.4 |
| CF | Kirk Nieuwenhuis | .329/.414/0.5 |
| Expected rotation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Player | Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR) |
| 1 | Johan Santana | 185/3.50/1.5 |
| 2 | Jon Niese | 190/3.98/3.1 |
| 3 | Shaun Marcum | 196/3.63/3.1 |
| 4 | Matt Harvey | 192/3.70/2.5 |
| 5 | Dillon Gee | 55/4.09/1.2 |
Position Players
The clear leader of this group of position players is David Wright, who bounced back after an injury-shortened 2011 to put up the stats we've come to expect from him - .306/.391/492 triple slash. Opposite him in the diamond is first baseman Ike Davis, who excelled after the all-star break last season and is the main power threat in this line-up. Ruben Tejada has been quietly excellent over the past couple of seasons, with a .289 average last season making up for a lack of patience. The power is non-existent and the speed hasn't developed, so he'll need to continue to hit for average, but his defense is pretty good. Finally the consistent Daniel Murphy completes the infield. He hit for a .291 average last season with a little bit of extra-base power and 10 steals. He doesn't do anything excellently, but is a solid contributor across the board and should get on base for the Mets atop the line-up.
The outfield is pretty dire for the Mets after the off-season moves, and will be led by the streaky Lucas Duda. He has pretty good pop to all fields, hitting 15 homers in 121 games last season, but the woeful batting average means his decent walk rate is pretty inconsequential. He has decent raw tools, but needs to cut down on the strikeouts and improve his awful defense if he wants to play every day. Mike Baxter didn't get much playing time last season, and is unlikely to set the world alight this season, with decent on-base ability the only thing going for him. Nieuwenhuis is an excellent athlete, but regressed after a hot start with the Mets last season and needs to cut down on the strikeouts in order to tap into his power/speed potential. John Buck will start the season at catcher, but likely make room for prospect Travis D'Arnaud at some point. D'Arnaud was the key piece in the Dickey trade and profiles as a hitter with good on-base ability, some power and excellent defense. Overall, this is a unit that has little to be excited about. The outfield is awful and the pressure will be on Wright and Davis to drive in runs. Overall grade: 3/10.
Pitching
The exit of R.A. Dickey leaves this rotation with no clear ace, and the pressure will be on Johan Santana to live up to his enormous contract. Up until his no-hitter against the Cardinals, Santana was excellent for the Mets, sporting a 2.38 ERA in the first week of June. However, he began to fall apart after that, and wound up on the disabled list - he'll need to be more consistent this year. Jon Niese and Shaun Marcum are two underrated innings-eaters. Niese has struggled a bit with the long ball, but has good strikeout rates and his WHIP and ERA took a huge step in the right direction last year. Marcum hasn't recorded an ERA above 3.70 since 2007, a feat made more impressive when you consider his home parks (Rogers Centre and Miller Park). Matt Harvey made an explosive entry to the big leagues late last season, with through-the-roof strikeout rates and an ERA of 2.73. Regression is to be expected (remember that Matt Moore did the exact same thing the season before) but Harvey still has the stuff to develop into a future ace.
The bullpen was a bit of a mess for the Mets last season, with an ERA of 4.65 that was only just better than that of the Brewers, making them the second worst relieving corps in the Majors. Frank Francisco was actually pretty good in the closers role at the start of the season, but he was sidetracked by injuries and ultimately had an ugly 5.53 ERA. Breathing down his neck, and possibly starting in the closing role will be Bobby Parnell. The 28 year-old flamethrower has battled control issues in the past but actually had a superb year in 2012, with a 2.49 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Along with those two will be veteran Brandon Lyon, who had a good year in Houston last season and Atchison, Feliciano, Hawkins and submarine right-hander Greg Burke will vie for bullpen spots in Spring Training. The rotation has much promise, but ultimately will be worse after losing R.A. Dickey. The bullpen should bounce back a little after last year, but still has glaring a holes and could become a liability. Overall grade: 3/10.
Prospects
The aforementioned Travis D'Arnaud leads this group of prospects, who have good quality at the top but not a whole lot of depth. D'Arnaud should make the Major League team after a few months provided he is solid at AAA, and could be an impact bat from the start. Zack Wheeler arrived in the 2011 Beltran trade, and has since done his best to emulate Matt Harvey. He has a good fastball and breaking ball, and if he can develop a change-up could give the Mets a pair of aces. Like D'Arnaud, he will start the year in the minors, but may force his way into the big league rotation if he pitches well. Other than those two top prospects, there won't be many other rookies contributing and there aren't many other top prospects in this top-heavy system. Overall grade: 5/10.
Overview
Like last year, this is a team that few expect to contend for the division. The line-up has glaring holes, particularly in the outfield, whilst the rotation will rely on a broken-down Johan Santana and upstart youngster Matt Harvey. There are reasons to be optimistic as Mets fans, with a young core and some good prospects coming through. For 2013 however, it may be no more than a scrap with the Marlins.
Prediction: 67-95
Gif to Watch
One reason Mets fans have to be excited? Matt Harvey and that delicious fastball:
Or slowed down a bit:
That ball appears to accelerate half way to the plate. Good luck NL East hitters!
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